The Only Correct 2023 Mock Draft (probably not)

I am not the only person to do a mock draft, but I am the only person to get it 100% right. This is my 2023 NFL Mock Draft.

Last time I tried a mock draft on this website, it went horribly. But I’m going to try this again, this time hopefully I will get more picks correct. This draft cycle is the most unpredictable one I’ve ever followed, and along with many questions regarding the strength of this year’s relative to next year’s, we don’t know which direction general managers will try to take their organizations. This draft is going to be crazy, and I should not be at all expected to get any of this right because nobody will.

1. Carolina Panthers (via CHI) - Bryce Young, QB, Alabama

Every betting market indicates that the Panthers will take Bryce Young, a quick turnaround after everyone suspected they would take Ohio State’s CJ Stroud when they first traded up. I think Young is the right pick here, but it’s a fascinating one, as he is pretty much the smallest quarterback ever, playing at about 5’10 and 200 lbs if we’re being generous. Young is a stunning fit for Panthers head coach Frank Reich, who has exclusively worked with quarterbacks above 6’3, meaning that a lot of what he is familiar with running on offense may not work. Despite his height, Young is tremendous at creating plays when under pressure and has a Heisman trophy under his belt. He is the best quarterback in this class.

Other potential picks: CJ Stroud, Will Levis Update: While I was editing this piece, DraftKings took down the odds for the first 3 picks, but I don’t know what I can even do at this point. The first two picks could easily be flipped. Anything could happen. The 2023 draft is one of pure chaos.

2. Houston Texans - Will Levis, QB, Kentucky

I’m pretty sure there’s a different betting favorite for who will be the number 2 pick every week, but I’ve stood by two things. 1: The Texans don’t want to tank for another year, and 2: The NFL likes Will Levis more than we think. Levis is the personality that owners and GMs will gravitate towards most, being tough enough to play through any injury, and always the hardest worker in a building. Coaches, on the other hand, may have some reservations. Levis has good physical traits but they don’t compare to those of another QB in this class, and he tries to play hero-ball, making some really stupid plays in the process. He’s an even tougher evaluation because his 2021 tape was incredible, but his offense fell apart in 2022 and he had to play through injury, meaning he ended his collegiate career with a dud season. Guys like Levis who know NFL schemes, work hard, and motivate a locker room to play for him get rewarded, and amidst all of the question marks about this quarterback class, Levis is rising because teams feel like he is the most stable option. Houston could go with a defender here, but if they don’t Levis feels like he’s the most viable option for the Texans here at pick 2.

Other potential picks: CJ Stroud, Tyree Wilson, Will Anderson

3. Arizona Cardinals - Tyree Wilson, EDGE, Texas Tech

Arizona probably is trying to trade out of this pick to get more draft capitol, which would absolutely be the right move, but I’m not predicting any trades in this article, so I have Arizona going with the player who I think will be the first defender off the board: Tyree Wilson. While I personally believe that Wilson is nowhere near polished enough to be the third overall pick, he does have tremendous potential and length that could allow him to develop into a star pass rusher. Arizona’s roster is beyond horrible, so they seem destined for their choice of any of next years’ hyped up QB class, so they really don’t need any production from Wilson as a rookie. The NFL loves Wilson’s potential, and I think that the Cardinals, along with many other teams, would take Wilson over any other defender in this draft.

Other potential picks: Trade out, Will Anderson

4. Indianapolis Colts - Anthony Richardson, QB, Florida

Colts GM Chris Ballard is obsessed with a prospect’s traits, always preaching that his scouts should “look for the good, not for the bad.” Well, the “good” in Richardson is about as good as you’ll get. Richardson is the best athlete we’ve ever seen at QB, my source being Kent Lee Platte’s RAS (Relative Athletic Scores) and my own eyes which watched him work out at the combine. Richardson has a crazy strong arm, superb mobility, and therefore the potential to be a true superstar quarterback, something that the Colts need if they want to seriously compete in the AFC. If Richardson had no deficiencies in his game, he’d be the first pick, but there are areas for concern. His main flaw is his accuracy, as he still doesn’t know how to put touch on a ball and has messy footwork. Surprisingly, his mental processing is better than many people, including myself, would expect, so I don’t think that Richardson’s problems are as limiting as those of past quarterbacks labeled “projects.” Both Indy’s coach and GM believe in the development of players like Richardson, so I think they’d take him if he falls to pick 4.

Other potential picks: CJ Stroud, Will Levis

5. Seattle Seahawks (via DEN) - Will Anderson, EDGE, Alabama

I think Seattle would also prefer Tyree Wilson to Anderson, but they need an edge rusher and Anderson is arguably the best player in the whole draft. Anderson is an explosive and technically sound player from Alabama who also is considered undersized, which may remind you of Bryce Young. Seattle has some solid rushers, but nobody near the level of Anderson, and a defensive front featuring Anderson, Uchenna Nwosu, Dre’Mont Jones, and Shelby Harris would be very hard to block.

Other potential picks: Tyree Wilson, Anthony Richardson, Jalen Carter

6. Detroit Lions (via LAR) - Devon Witherspoon, CB, Illinois

Detroit could take a quarterback here, but I don’t think they’d want Stroud given how similar he is to the guy they already have, Jared Goff. Levis is an intriguing option, but I’m not sure that their GM Brad Holmes would want to risk his job for him, and he may not be available for the Lions. Witherspoon has been matched to Detroit countless times in the past month, and the circumstances in Detroit make him a nice fit to play with intensity and fit into an ascending defense.

Other potential picks: Tyree Wilson, Anthony Richardson

7. Las Vegas Raiders - CJ Stroud, QB, Ohio State

It’s an open secret that the Raiders have liked Stroud for a while, and they may move up to get him. Stroud has a high floor because his arm is super talented and aside from his athletic limitations, which are overblown, he has no major deficiencies in his game. Stroud is getting some crazy rumors regarding his character and mental processing thrown around, which indicates that either the NFL is lower on him than we think or the Raiders really want him to fall to 7. Either way, I think that other teams never liked him too much and if he falls out of the top 2, the Raiders will try their hardest to grab their guy.

Other potential picks: Christian Gonzalez, Will Levis, trade up

8. Atlanta Falcons - Bijan Robinson, RB, Texas

This would be a very in-character pick for Atlanta and coach Arthur Smith, who seems to want a similar structure to what he had in Tennessee with Derrick Henry. This year’s draft class is seen as weak, and while picking a running back is often looked down upon in the top ten, Bijan has no holes in his game. Robinson is basically a perfect prospect for his position, but many people don’t know how far he’ll slide because of his position and how easy it has been proven to be to find quality running backs in later rounds. I don’t think he falls as far as analytics people would want, because he’s one of the best football players in the draft.

Other potential picks: Christian Gonzalez, CJ Stroud

9. Chicago Bears (via CAR) - Jalen Carter, DL, Georgia

I nearly had Chicago picking more for need and grabbing an offensive lineman, but I don’t think they can justifiably pass on the best football player in this draft. Carter was rumored to be the Bears’ choice when they had the first overall pick, but since then the Bears moved to a lower draft slot and Carter has gotten himself into some legal trouble, raising questions about his character and commitment to football and lowering his draft stock. In the NFL, some teams value off-field concerns a lot more than others, but it’s just so hard to pass on a player who is absolutely dominant in whatever role he plays on the interior defensive line, and I anticipate the Bears take the best player on the board when they have so many spots to fill on their roster.

Other potential picks: Peter Skoronski, Paris Johnson Jr.

10. Philadelphia Eagles (via NO) - Nolan Smith, EDGE, Georgia

I think Philadelphia is the lowest Carter will fall, but the highest that his teammate Nolan Smith would go. Philly is pretty set at just about every position on their roster, and they have an extended history of prioritizing linemen in the draft, and Smith provides them with immediate energy to their defense. Their pass rushers are aging, and Smith allows the NFC champion Eagles to become even harder to gameplan for by adding a crazy speed threat off the edge. This is a luxury pick, but Philly will try their best to solve a future problem, and Smith does that while providing immediate juice to their already deadly pass rush.

Other potential picks: Jalen Carter, Peter Skoronski, Paris Johnson Jr.

11. Tennessee Titans - Peter Skoronski, OL, Northwestern

Tennessee’s offensive line is just so bad. They signed some solid players in the offseason, but whoever plays QB for them is going to get killed. Skoronski has played tremendously as a tackle for Northwestern, but his length may make NFL coaches inclined to move him to guard, where he would be a stud. Tennessee has other players like Skoronski who have positional flexibility on the offensive line, and the Titans will love his intensity and physicality no matter where he plays. Skoronski may be the best player left on the board, and the Titans badly need a player like him. They are a candidate for a QB this draft, but in this scenario none of the top four are available to them.

Other potential picks: Will Levis, Anthony Richardson (trade up), Paris Johnson Jr.

12. Houston Texans (via CLE) - Christian Gonzalez, CB, Oregon

Gonzalez is the best player available and probably a top ten talent in this class. His length and technique at the cornerback position are sound, and he’ll be able to stick in the NFL from day 1. Houston picked CB Derek Stingley Jr. third last year, but that shouldn’t stop them from selecting Gonzalez to assemble one of the best young cornerback duos in the league. Houston could opt to not take a quarterback at pick 2 and wait until 12 to snag their guy, but in this scenario they already have Levis, and want to give Demeco Ryans a new tool for his defense.

Other potential picks: Will Levis, Nolan Smith, Lukas Van Ness

13. Green Bay Packers - Lukas Van Ness, EDGE, Iowa

Lukas Van Ness is a physically imposing player with limited reps due to his status as a rotational pass rusher at Iowa, but checks every box that the NFL has when determining who is a good player. His frame is incredible, and Green Bay has a history of prioritizing size and potential when making selections in the first round. His biggest strength may be his versatility, which will allow him to play more often and such versatility has appealed to Green Bay before when taking defensive line prospects. The Packers seem allergic to helping out their quarterback, and would drool over the potential to pick another defensive player in the first round.

Other potential picks: Paris Johnson Jr., Jaxon Smith-Njigba, Michael Mayer

14. New England Patriots - Zay Flowers, WR, Boston College

This is the earliest Zay could go, but he deserves it. Flowers has top-tier speed and quickness while standing only at 5’9, but unlike other receivers in this class, his height doesn’t cause many problems at all. He is able to maintain his superb agility and speed even when putting on more weight, and doesn’t lack the physicality needed to succeed at the NFL level. The Patriots have been linked to him a lot, as he showed explosiveness just down the road from Foxborough in Boston, and they need his energy to evolve their receiver room from sufficient to scary.

Other potential picks: OL, QB (trade up), CB

15. New York Jets - Paris Johnson Jr., OL, Ohio State

Paris Johnson shouldn’t and probably won’t fall this far, but he would be an A+ pick for the Jets and recently acquired QB Aaron Rodgers. The Jets’ offensive line is highly suspect at the moment, and grabbing Johnson somewhat reminds me of the Buccaneers taking Tristan Wirfs to get the last piece along with Tom Brady for a Super Bowl run, as Johnson’s athleticism and positional flexibility makes him a high-floor pick who maintains a high ceiling.

They will take an offensive lineman here, other linemen are their potential other picks.

16. Washington Commanders - Deonte Banks, CB, Maryland

I really like Banks, even though like the Zay Flowers pick, he likely won’t be the expected pick even at his own position. Banks has an incredible athletic ceiling and doesn’t play too far from the Commanders facilities, and fills an important positional need. The Commanders don’t have an owner, so they can really do whatever they want, and that may mean making a bolder pick that they like, and they have a history of picking players that need more development on defense.

Other potential picks: Darnell Wright, Myles Murphy, Nolan Smith, trade down

17. Pittsburgh Steelers - Darnell Wright, OT, Tennessee

This is the lowest that Darnell Wright will fall. He may not be a flashy name coming from Tennessee, but Wright is a mauling blocker, a determined worker, and a great athlete. NFL teams love that, and Wright will rightfully go in the first round because of that. Pittsburgh needs a player like him, having no consistency at offensive tackle in recent years. The biggest flaw in Wright’s game is his highly inconsistent weight, but if any team can trust their culture to get the best out of a player, it’s the Pittsburgh Steelers.

Other potential picks: Broderick Jones, Joey Porter Jr,

18. Detroit Lions - Hendon Hooker, QB, Tennessee

This was the hardest pick of this whole mock draft, but I think the Lions know that they may need to take a quarterback this draft. Hooker can’t start right away because of a torn ACL, and despite being 25 years old, he is clearly a project. Hooker doesn’t move in the pocket, and at Tennessee all he did was throw deep passes, to great success. Hooker is intriguing because people don’t know how far he is from being a starting quarterback, and despite his age and injury, NFL teams are interested. Other potential picks: Jack Campbell, Calijah Kancey, anyone (seriously I don’t know)

19. Tampa Bay Buccaneers - Broderick Jones, OT, Georgia

Broderick Jones is a great athlete with messy technique, making him a pretty raw prospect. Nonetheless, he will go in the first round because he played well in college and doesn’t seem too far from being an effective NFL tackle with the potential to be a stud. Tampa cut ties with longtime inconsistent offensive tackle Donovan Smith, and they need someone to fill his space. Jones fits all of their athletic preferences and will be allowed to play tackle from day 1, and while it may look ugly early in the season, this is Tampa’s best route to a rock-solid OT duo.

Other potential picks: Dalton Kincaid, Michael Mayer, Anton Harrison, QB (trade up)

20. Seattle Seahawks - Jaxon Smith-Njigba, WR, Ohio State

Smith-Njigba probably won’t and shouldn’t fall this far, but he fits Seattle so well. The Seahawks offensive coordinator Shane Waldron comes from the Rams, and I think that JSN’s potential will be fully reached with usage similar to Cooper Kupp, as he thrives from the slot and long speed is the only major flaw in his game. He also isn’t going to be expected to produce immediately in Seattle, as he would be behind two productive but injury prone receivers. Smith-Njigba would be a slam dunk pick at 20, and the Seahawks would be the winners of the draft if they could land two stars in round 1.

Other potential picks: Myles Murphy, trade up/down, O’Cyrus Torrence

The Miami Dolphins would be picking here, but their owner got a bit too silly and decided to tamper and try to get Tom Brady, so we'll just say they tried to turn in Tom Brady on the draft card.

21. Los Angeles Chargers - Myles Murphy, EDGE, Clemson

There’s a solid chance that LA takes a receiver here, and it would make sense, as there’s a solid chance that a team like the Saints trade up and grab Murphy. However, Myles Murphy’s 2021 film makes him a hot commodity in the NFL, showing the ability and toughness necessary to play on every down at the NFL level. The Chargers have good edge rushers, but it’s still one of their biggest needs, as their current room is very injury prone and lacks depth. I think the Chargers are more likely to take an edge rusher than we may think, and if he’s not gone, I don’t think LA passes Murphy up.

Other potential picks: Quentin Johnston, Nolan Smith, Zay Flowers

22. Baltimore Ravens - Joey Porter Jr., CB, Penn State

Porter Jr., the son of former NFL player Joey Porter, would be a super fun fit in Baltimore. Funnily enough, Joey Porter played on the Steelers, so in this mock draft I have his son going to his former team’s rival. The Ravens need cornerbacks, and Porter could be the best defender left in the draft at this point, if he lasts this long without hearing his name. Porter’s biggest strength is his length, as his arms nearly go down to his knees. This length allows Porter to disrupt more passing lanes than one would expect, and allows him to be physical with any receiver in press coverage. Baltimore’s defense highly values players who can do what Porter can, which is why I wouldn’t expect him to fall past 22 if he made it there.

Other potential picks: Zay Flowers, Quentin Johnston, Deonte Banks, Emmanuel Forbes, DJ Turner

23. Minnesota Vikings - DJ Turner, DB, Michigan

I don’t know if anyone expects Turner to go in round 1, but it would make a ton of sense. Turner can immediately slot in on the outside, but defensive coordinators can be creative with him, and Brian Flores desperately needs more tools in the secondary. Turner may be small, but he also would immediately be one of the fastest cornerbacks in the league, making him an appealing option for teams looking for immediate production at the end of the first round. Minnesota has basically nothing at cornerback right now, and they badly need one in a scheme that relies so heavily on them.

Other potential picks: Hendon Hooker, Deonte Banks, Joey Porter Jr., Emmanuel Forbes, Cam Smith

24. Jacksonville Jaguars - Brian Branch, DB, Alabama

Branch makes too much sense for Jacksonville. The Jaguars badly need a slot defender, as they tried to get Darious Williams to fill that role before making the same mistake other teams had done and just sticking him on the outside. Branch also functions as a safety, making him a very versatile player who can fill a lot of roles. He shouldn’t fall this far, but tons of people have made this connection before, and Branch makes the Jaguars a lot better.

Other potential picks: Secondary, D-Line

25. New York Giants - Quentin Johnston, WR, TCU

In February, this seemed like the farthest Johnston could fall. Now, this feels closer to his ceiling. Johnston had a breakout season at TCU, racking up over 1,000 yards en route to a championship loss, marking one of the best seasons in TCU program history. Johnston is a big and speedy receiver who doesn’t play with the physicality that you would want of someone with his frame. The Giants need bigger wide receivers who are comfortable playing on the outside, and Quentin Johnston is a good fit.

Other potential picks: Emmanuel Forbes, Josh Downs, Michael Mayer

26. Dallas Cowboys - Michael Mayer, TE, Notre Dame

This pick makes sense because the Cowboys probably have Mayer as the top player available on their board by a lot. Mayer has been destined for the first round since his freshman year at college, but like Addison, his stock has fallen a little because of limited agility scores. Dallas is known to take bigger names, and their tight ends have traditionally been bigger and slower guys rather than major receiving threats. Mayer allows Dallas’s front office to fill a position of need, gives QB Dak Prescott another weapon in the passing game, and gives well-known owner Jerry Jones somebody to deem the second coming of Cowboys icon Jason Witten.

Other potential picks: Bijan Robinson, Jahmyr Gibbs, Dalton Kincaid, Brian Breese

27. Buffalo Bills - Jordan Addison, WR, USC

The Bills value collegiate production and floor more than almost any other team, and don’t put as much of an emphasis on athletic traits. Addison is the epitome of a high-production player with athletic question marks, as he won the Biletnikoff award as the best receiver in college football in 2021 with Pittsburgh, and still performed well at USC. His stock tanked during the combine, where he posted mediocre agility scores while measuring in as one of the draft’s smallest receivers. However, as I outlined earlier, the Bills are very willing to overlook those athletic limitations to pick a player who has played too well to be bad but tested too poorly to be a star.

Other potential picks: Mazi Smith, Josh Downs, Brian Breese, Calijah Kancey

28. Cincinnati Bengals - Emmanuel Forbes, CB, Mississippi State

Lots of people have hyped up the 167-pound ballhawk Emmanuel Forbes to go in the first round recently. Cincinnati lost at least half of their secondary this offseason to free agency, and desperately needs players to complement Chidobe Awuzie, Mike Hilton, and Daxton Hill. Forbes’s biggest weakness is his frame, but his biggest strength is his instincts. Forbes had 6 interceptions last year, and that number was by no means an anomaly. Emmanuel Forbes provides an explosive element to his game at cornerback, making him an intriguing option for a team that has been so close to lifting up the Lombardi Trophy in the past two seasons.

Other potential picks: Michael Mayer, Dalton Kincaid, Anton Harrison, DJ Turner

29. New Orleans Saints (via SF/MIA/DEN) - Calijah Kancey, DL, Pittsburgh

The Saints defensive line went from a deep to a thin position group pretty fast because of their cap situation, but Kancey would provide agility rushing from the interior or even head-on against offensive tackles. After losing David Onyemata and Sheldon Rankins in recent years, they need another option on the interior, and Kancey is probably the best one left. Kancey, while very undersized (a common theme in this draft), uses quickness and technique to win frequently on the interior, and he probably will hear his name called on Thursday.

Other potential picks: trade up (will likely happen), Myles Murphy

30. Philadelphia Eagles - Darnell Washington, TE, Georgia

Darnell Washington is what actually would happen if LeBron James tried to play football. Washington is 6’8 and usually the biggest person on the field, and he’s a freak athlete. Washington is somewhat fast for his size and blocks like an offensive lineman, bolstering the run game. This is a luxury pick for Philadelphia, but they could be scary in 2-TE sets with Goedert, more of a receiving TE, and Washington. My favorite part about this pick is that the Eagles submitted an approved rule that would allow players to wear the number zero, Washington’s college number, just a few months ago. If that was for Washington, that would be incredibly funny.

Other potential picks: Matthew Bergeron, O’Cyrus Torrence, DJ Turner, Jahmyr Gibbs

31.Kansas City Chiefs - Anton Harrison, OT, Oklahoma

Harrison would make sense in Kansas City. His technique, especially his upper body, has steadily improved to become really good in 2022, and he’s not far from becoming a starter. Harrison’s main flaw is lateral movement in pass protection, but the Chiefs will know how to protect his weakness while he improves. Kansas City really lacks a tackle, after losing both of their starters last year and only signing one so far. I doubt that whoever picks Harrison ends up regretting that pick, and Kansas City could really use another option to protect Mahomes. Anton Harrison can also play on either side of the line, which makes whatever unit he is drafted to better from day 1.

Other potential picks: Will McDonald IV (or any other EDGE), Zay Flowers (or any other WR), trade up