The Inflection Points of the 2024 NFL Draft.
The NFL Draft is always impossible to predict, but in this piece, I present the most pivotal points in the draft.
This year’s NFL draft has felt like one of the most unpredictable ones since I’ve followed the sport (which isn’t too long). Predicting the draft to precision in general is a fool’s errand, but this year feels special. Teams have been quieter and more reserved about leaking info than ever before, and this draft has tons of logical trade candidates. This unpredictability is part of a larger trend by teams to change how teams think the board will fall, and influence actions as a result.
Recently, Bill Belichick (the best coach ever) point-blank said that real info isn’t leaked until the day of the draft, and the leaks we see beforehand are often pushed by agents. To put it simply, there are a lot of lies floating around regarding where people expect certain prospects to go in the NFL Draft.
Last year was a great example of this, where Will Levis was a near-lock to go in the top 5 last year (I never believed this, to be honest) and he ended up falling to round 2. Meanwhile, CJ Stroud, who was eventually the number 2 overall pick, shot up from a long shot to go 2nd to a favorite in the final hours before Houston was on the clock. Needless to say, the draft is a highly chaotic process, so rather than trying to predict every selection, I've instead identified the most important things to look out for in the draft.
Who does Washington take at 2?
I’m choosing not to believe whatever I’m hearing from the Washington Commanders about the second overall pick. Most national reports have had the Commanders taking LSU’s Heisman Trophy winner Jayden Daniels, but I’m not buying it. Years of history tell us that it’s not worth trusting an NFL team regarding which quarterback they’ll take. We had the Herbert/Tua debate in 2020, Lance/Mac in 2021, the Malik Willis hype of 2022, and the aforementioned Will Levis last year. The debate in 2021 lingers in my mind, as Washington GM Adam Peters was with the 49ers when they sent all sorts of errant signals to the national media regarding which QB they would pick.
I personally think that Washington will take UNC’s Drake Maye, who has been the second highest rated quarterback in this class for over a year now. People like to think that Washington’s moves signal that they’re taking Daniels, as they hired notable Air Raid OC Kliff Kingsbury and signed mobile strong-arm quarterback Marcus Mariota. While Daniels fits well with both of their preferred playstyles, so does Maye. While early-career Mariota played like Daniels, current-day Mariota plays more like Drake Maye. Drake Maye even has experience in the Air Raid itself, having played in the system throughout college.
Another reason why I’m not buying the Daniels hype is the signals that we’re getting from other teams. Most of the sources on Daniels at 2 have been from other teams and agents. If the sources came from Washington, betting markets would treat Daniels as having a 99% chance to be the second pick, rather than a percentage hovering around the eighties. Teams like the Vikings and Giants haven’t quite hidden their high opinion of Drake Maye; Minnesota in particular hired his high school QB coach to the same role for the Vikings. Although I wouldn’t be surprised to see Daniels be the pick, I still think it’s gonna be Drake Maye.
Credit: Getty Images
Does New England stick and pick a QB at 3?
The Patriots are fully resetting. They have a new GM (who doesn’t have the official title), new coach, and with that comes levels of unfamiliarity with even your own scouting processes that will inevitably lead to bumps in the road. If you were to ask me right now what the chances of three separate results for the New England, here’s what I’d say:
70% chance they stay at 3 and take a quarterback.
29% chance they trade back.
1% chance they stay and take a receiver.
The case for taking a QB is simple: quarterbacks are hard to acquire and if you think you can get the face of your franchise, you have to do it. The question then boils down to whether or not the Patriots can trust their infrastructure and scouting abilities to get that decision right. Whoever plays quarterback for New England next season will be doing so with such a poor supporting cast that most quarterbacks typically don’t recover from, so the Patriots have to consider if it’s in their best interest to ruin the confidence of a young passer in what looks like it will be a poor 2024 season.
The case for a trade back is a little bit more complicated. If the Patriots don’t think that they can pick a guy who can become the franchise quarterback, they are probably best suited trading back with one of many QB-needy teams and accumulating assets for a slower rebuild. The truth is that this Patriots team is still years away from being a serious contender, and one quarterback won’t rectify their struggles along the entire offense.
While a trade down does mean that fans won’t have much to look forward to this season, it may be in their best interest long term. Just look at what Houston did, nobody cares that Davis Mills started 26 games for the Texans now that they took off with CJ Stroud after a slow few years following the Deshaun Watson trade. There’s a lot to consider with New England at 3. I personally would need a lot more draft capital to move down with Maye on the board than Daniels, but evaluating quarterbacks is a crapshoot anyways. Finally, the Robert Kraft factor always exists, as he might demand a quarterback without any logic or reasoning behind the decision.
Credit: Getty Images
Who makes the move up for a QB?
I’m more than 90% confident that there will be a trade involving a team moving up into the top 10 picks to select a quarterback. My reasoning for this has to do with the teams at 11, 12, and 13. The Vikings, who pick 11th, haven’t even tried to hide their intentions. In March, they traded future capital with the Texans for pick number 23 in this year’s draft, a move that I think had to be made under a tentative agreement that their trade partner would rather pick 23 than the pair of second round picks they used to get it. They’ve followed up on their actions with words, as Vikings GM Kwesi Adofo-Mensah very publicly described their approach to evaluating rookie quarterbacks in an April 11th press conference. They’ve been linked to Michigan’s JJ McCarthy, which would be a fascinating pairing of Brock Purdy-like traits with a near-ideal supporting cast for a rookie.
Although the Vikings are certainly the favorite to move up, don’t count out Denver or Las Vegas in what could become a bidding war. The Broncos pick 12th, and they’re in a rough spot. They don’t have a second round pick to move up with, and they have at most one true building block of the franchise (Pat Surtain II). This roster, lacking cheap young talent, should go for a longer rebuild rather than push a nonexistent winning window. However, under Denver’s current regime, I’d be surprised if they didn’t at least make an effort to move up. Their coach, (and de-facto GM) Sean Payton, is known for his time with the Saints, who famously never traded back and always used draft capital aggressively in trading up. Their ownership may also want a player who the fans can enjoy rooting for, as they probably want another player who can generate excitement who doesn't play cornerback.
While the Vikings and Broncos have been hot topics regarding an aggressive trade, the Raiders haven’t been. I’d argue that the Raiders make more sense to move up, even if GM Tom Telesco’s draft history suggests that he may not prefer that route. The Raiders have a stronger roster than Denver does, and star WR Davante Adams is on the wrong side of 30. I don’t think they’d outbid Minnesota for Maye or McCarthy, but Jayden Daniels may intrigue them. Daniels has connections to the Raiders coach Antonio Pierce, who recruited him out of high school, and Daniels has spoken very highly of Pierce.
Credit: Getty Images
Do the Falcons trade back from pick 8?
The Falcons offense is ready to go with newly acquired QB Kirk Cousins, but what about the defense? Atlanta hasn’t had a good edge rusher for about a decade, so edge seems like the obvious choice. However, if Atlanta thinks that the pass rusher they want can fall a little bit, they may trade out of the pick. Chicago sits right behind them at pick 9, and they will probably take the third of three blue-chip receiver prospects if available (which will probably be Washington's Rome Odunze). So, there could be a bidding war for the 8th pick. The Jets could move up, Denver could, Indianapolis could, Jacksonville could, or Atlanta could just pick the receiver themselves. The first seven picks of this draft will likely be some order of four quarterbacks, two receivers, and an offensive lineman, so the draft becomes even more unpredictable starting with the Falcons at 8 overall.
Credit: Jesse Beals/Icon Sportswire
When does the run on Offensive Tackles begin?
This draft class is one of the best offensive line classes we’ve seen in a while. Not only could there be upwards of 7 offensive linemen in round 1, betting markets expect it. There is a ton of supply in round 1, and tons of teams want to shore up their tackle spots.
It seems inevitable that there is a run on tackles, but where does it start? The Jets could pick one, the Chargers could if they trade down, the Broncos could, the Raiders could, the Saints could, even the Seahawks could. Realistically, anyone but the Vikings (11, 23), Colts (15), and Rams (19) from picks 10 to 26 could take an offensive lineman. So, while it’s possible that there aren’t even eight offensive linemen taken in round 1, it's also possible that there are at least seven gone before Dallas picks at number 24. With a draft board headlined with offensive talent, teams will look to address pass protection early and often in this year’s draft.
Credit: Getty Images
Where is Michael Penix Jr. taken?
Reports on where Washington QB Michael Penix will be taken are very uncertain. Some seem certain that he won’t fall beyond the Raiders pick at 13, while some think he will fall outside of the first round entirely. I agree more with the latter take, as I think the hype with Penix has gone too far. Teams don’t magically raise up a player by a whole round in mid-April, and that’s where the perception on Penix has gone. Still, he could be a candidate to be taken at the end of round 1, even if it’s a team like the Raiders trading back up into the first.