How should teams invest into Wide Receivers? (and other positions too)
Positional value in the NFL has never been more important, with league talent only getting both stronger and deeper and market-breaking...
Positional value in the NFL has never been more important, with league talent only getting both stronger and deeper and market-breaking contracts being handed out every offseason. Quarterbacks are obviously the most valuable position, but the next four are in a group: Wide Receiver, Offensive Tackle, Edge Rushers, and Cornerbacks. Let’s investigate where the positional value lies in these spots, where there is talent and where teams should investigate.
Wide Receivers and Edge Rushers are at a glut. It feels like both positions, especially wide receivers, are littered with talent every draft class, and that allows for teams to feel more comfortable letting those positions leave in free agency due to how easy it is to replace them in the draft. Now, the opposite applies for their counterparts: Cornerbacks and Offensive Tackles. These positions are often at a rarity in the NFL, and teams often struggle to replace lost talent in the often weaker and thinner OT and CB draft classes.
So, how did we get here? First of all, if you haven’t watched Benjamin Solak’s video on the wide receiver talent in drafts, I would highly recommend it. His video goes over how there will never be another bad WR draft class, and why this is happening. His main point: There will never be a bad wide receiver class again due to the surge of passing at all levels of football. While Solak’s argument is correct, I dove into a different reason, starting at even the smallest levels of football.
In passing plays, the wide receivers and edge rushers are basically playing offense, initiating the play and trying to make the first move, and that’s why so many people want to play those positions. Edge and receiver are easier positions because you can dictate the play, and they often make the splash plays. Kids want to play these positions in the same way that kids want to play offense over defense in basketball, they want to be like the players that they idolize for their highlight tapes. This is why, in my opinion, top tier wide receivers and edge rushers will continue to pour into the NFL.
So, how should NFL teams approach this?
We know what this causes for wide receivers and edge rushers, but what about corners and tackles? Well, this just puts an even higher emphasis on those positions, specifically filling out the depth charts there. If one of your cornerbacks loses, or one of your tackles loses, the other team is probably going to make a big play. In addition, this allows opposing teams to attack a weaker player, and match up their top guy with a weaker player. If you don’t believe me, watch the 2020 NFC Championship Game between Green Bay and Tampa Bay; that cold January afternoon, The Bucs avoided Jaire Alexander and consistently threw towards Kevin King in an upset victory.
But there’s one more important factor in investing into players, that being the salary cap.
We are witnessing one of the most interesting eras in the NFL with the salary cap booming, and contracts rising in line with it. In specific, the top of the wide receiver and edge rusher markets are growing daily, and that’s creating an important divide in the NFL. Some teams are willing to pay 25+ million annually for individual players, while others are not. The Packers, Chiefs, and Titans all traded top-tier receivers, letting the Raiders, Dolphins, and Eagles pay them each over 25 million. And truthfully, I don’t see this stopping. Star receivers from 2019 such as Deebo Samuel, DK Metcalf, and Terry McLaurin are all on the final years of their deals, and all three have been in trade talks at some point this offseason, although McLaurin is likely off the table for now. And the year after, well, the star-studded 2020 draft class with Justin Jefferson, Ceedee Lamb, Michael Pittman Jr., Tee Higgins, and more will all have finished their fourth and possibly final years of their cheap rookie contracts.
But how should teams react? In my opinion, paying a WR a boatload of money isn’t a bad idea in a nutshell. The value that a top receiver (or edge) can give you is incredible. They can single handedly carry a unit, and force opposing coordinators to game plan against that specific player. With that said, I don’t blame teams, especially those with high QB cap hits, for moving on from their high-paid pass catchers because it would be an excessive amount to invest into that player based on their current cap situations. In general, I prefer more top-heavy WR and EDGE groups because you only need one win to win in a specific play, and they require so much attention. As for filling out the rest of a group, that shouldn’t require too significant of an investment. Obviously, you shouldn’t ignore your second weapon, but I also think it’s a mistake to pay serious starter money to a WR3. We’ll get into examples later.
As for Tackles and Corners, balance is a necessity. If you have one weak spot, you will be exposed, so rooms with no stars but all solid players are much more valuable than rooms with stars but also with liabilities. Signing solid starters is almost always smart (as long as they sign the right guy) and, unlike receivers, is very important to filling out a roster with the positional scarcity at those spots.
But it doesn’t stop with just the starters. Corners and Tackles are notorious for being impossible to find at lower levels due to how hard those positions are to play, so having depth that accounts for injuries is key. If a starter or two goes down, your season shouldn’t collapse, but it often does to teams that don’t invest and pay attention to their backups at those positions. This often won’t happen at WR and EDGE, but some teams still stumble into horrible replacements anyways. Think about every backup that your favorite team has introduced who was just awful, they were probably a corner or tackle who gave up a big play. You can’t have weak links at CB and OT, that can cost you superbowls.
So, what are some good examples of signings that I like, or don’t like? Let’s dive in.
LIKE: Bills Offense
Buffalo has aced their WR room. Stefon Diggs is a top 5 receiver, and they have the bodies necessary to surround him without much investment. Their other two starters, Gabriel Davis and Jamison Crowder, were mid-level investments who will be key contributors, Isaiah McKenzie and Tavon Austin are fun gadgets, and Khalil Shakir is a great all-around guy. They also have other big bodies, with Marquez Stevenson, Jake Kumerow, and Isaiah Hodgins. They invested in one guy, and kept swinging on lower-level investments like John Brown, Cole Beasley, and Emmanuel Sanders to provide compliments without breaking the bank. It’s a top-5 WR group with middling investment.
Buffalo’s offensive line is also the blueprint for this article. They have avoided spending high draft capital on offensive linemen, and although spending round 1 picks on linemen isn’t a bad idea, it’s nice when you can invest those into other positions. The Bills have been flexible with their guard spots, but they put above-average starters around them to make a good offensive line with minimal investment. Well done, Brandon Beane.
DISLIKE: Jaguars Offense
The Jags have gone against just about every argument in my article, and that’s probably why they’re really bad. Their receiving core of Zay Jones, Jamal Agnew, Marvin Jones Jr, Evan Engram (who is basically a WR), and Christian Kirk is arguably a bottom-ten group, and takes more money than most groups in the league. You needed at most two of those 5 guys, but they paid all 5, and they gave a player in this tier (Kirk) WR1 money. The Zay Jones contract was also just entirely unnecessary, they’re investing far too much into a fine WR3 who they can get for half of the price because of the glut at WR.
Their offensive line is also a wreck. While I like their OT depth, that’s mostly a product of Jacksonville consistently being bad and getting high picks who haven’t even exceeded expectations. Their interior is even worse, making over 20M per year, but that’s all invested into one player. Brandon Scherff is undoubtedly a stud, but when the people to his right and his left aren’t too strong, his wins won’t matter.
LIKE: Steelers defense
There’s a reason why the Steelers are competitive every year, and that’s because they’re always so well-constructed. They have had multiple stars along the defensive line, yet it seems like the others are stars when they play because their smaller investments are maximized by coaching and playing next to TJ Watt and Cam Heyward. Their secondary is also great, with their cornerbacks being incredibly underrated yet always underpaid, and I believe that will happen again because they stole Levi Wallace for just under 8 million dollars per year. They have their star and they coach around him so well.
DISLIKE: Giants defense
The Giants aren’t ready to compete, but their defense is still so prone to big plays. While each member of their defensive line is solid, it would take a breakout for any of them to be elite in 2022, and their investment into this “solid” group is astronomically high. It could be better if Kayvon Thibodeaux lives up to his potential, but as of now it’s looking like a net loss for 2022. Their secondary is also quite rough, as they’re paying Adoree Jackson arguably more than what he is worth, and they have nobody else. They had James Bradberry, but they had to cut him, exposing their lack of CB depth on the roster. Dave Gettleman really screwed the Giants.
So, to recap, star WRs and EDGEs are going to continue to become more and more valuable, but they’ll also be easier positions to find in general because they’re incredibly popular. OT and CB are the opposite, which makes finding depth for them a real concern for any front office. Hope you enjoyed!