Everything to know about the 2024 NFL Coaching Carousel
At the end of the NFL regular season, 14 teams enjoy an upcoming playoff game, and their season continues. For the other 18, however, the season is over. These 18 franchises then face tough decisions on whether or not to keep their playoff-missing coach for another season or to move on to someone new. The day after the NFL regular season ends, is dubbed “Black Monday” as a result of the many coaches who are fired on that Monday.
Typically, 5 to 7 coaches get fired each season. This could include mid-season firings, which are becoming more and more common throughout recent years. The truth is, NFL head coaches don’t get a lot of patience from their bosses, and often are the first to blame when a team struggles. This season, we’ve seen 8 openings. This atypical number, coupled with the college national champion looking like he’s gonna go back to the NFL, creates a super chaotic coaching carousel. So, who’s in play for these 8 jobs? I've set up a few categories to contextualize this wild coaching carousel.
Massively overqualified for this search
Mike Vrabel - Former Titans Head Coach
Mike Vrabel won the Coach of the Year award following an impressive 2021 season where his Titans were the AFC’s first seed. Since then, he won a power struggle over GM Jon Robinson, got him fired, but the team fell from the division’s best to its worst. Vrabel is still one of the best motivators and culture builders around the league, Tennessee just (erroneously) thought that the power dynamic wasn’t right for them. He’s one of the ten best coaches in the sport and should get opportunities this winter.
Jim Harbaugh - Michigan Wolverines Head Coach
Harbaugh is a… fascinating personality for sure. He’s a college coach for a reason: he wants to have full control over his football team, even though as a former quarterback himself, his area of expertise is on the offensive side of the football. Harbaugh got close to taking an NFL job last year, his first since being the 49ers coach during the Colin Kaepernick run 10 years ago, but ultimately stayed at Michigan for what ended up being his best season. Harbaugh has shown more interest than ever in returning to the NFL, and is expected to have a number of suitors.
Bill Belichick - Former Patriots Head Coach
If the greatest head coach of all time can’t make it work with a new quarterback, then he might be traded to a new team. Unlike other coaching candidates, he should get to choose his team at the end of his career and the team getting him should be willing to give up a draft pick for his defensive mind.
The main prize on each side of the ball
Ben Johnson - Lions Offensive Coordinator
In his two seasons as Detroit’s OC, Ben Johnson has been one of the most creative and successful offensive coordinators in football. Johnson has made it work with a smart and polished but limited and immobile quarterback, and his creativity has gotten the most out of a very young skill position group. He didn’t want Carolina’s job last season, he instead doubled down on the Lions and it paid off. Detroit is the 7th best offense by EPA/play for the past two seasons, and they’re doing so with some very creative play designs. Johnson, realistically, should have multiple teams to pick from as he decides where he coaches next.
Mike MacDonald - Ravens Defensive Coordinator
Ben Johnson, among other offensive minds such as Mike McDaniel and Kyle Shanahan, have dominated the past two seasons of football given their unique pathways to success with unique but limited quarterbacks. Every time the next hot thing faces Mike MacDonald’s Ravens, they get shut down. Remember when the Lions lost by 30+ points in Baltimore? Or when the Ravens single-handedly destroyed Brock Purdy’s MVP case on Christmas? Or how he’s been the one guy to give Joe Burrow fits consistently as he’s gotten his way against the rest of the AFC? These performances have been regular for MacDonald, and the way he does it makes it feel even more impressive. His modern defense filled with disguised coverages has given other teams blueprints to solve top offenses, so any team that wants this defensive guru should probably have to fight with other teams for him.
Is this their year?
Raheem Morris - Rams Defensive Coordinator
Morris, quite surprisingly, is one of my favorite candidates of the 2024 cycle. His recent work has been in LA, where he won a Super Bowl in 2021 and has consistently elevated sub-par talent to good performances. While his Rams stint is impressive, I think he’s an even better football mind than that shows. He got his first head coaching gig with the Buccaneers in 2009, where he never stood a fighting chance on a disintegrating team. Since then, he’s had his hands on both sides of the ball working with the likes of Kyle Shanahan and Sean McVay. Morris provides insight and leadership on both sides of the ball, and he’s gotten close to landing a few jobs recently. With nudges from esteemed head coach Sean McVay and GM Les Snead from the Rams, this may be the year.
Brian Flores - Vikings Defensive Coordinator
Flores got in kahoots with the league after getting fired from the Dolphins after a successful 3-year stint from 2019 to 2021 where he had a winning record despite weak rosters and a lot of unwanted drama. He was the rare former Patriots coordinator to successfully implement their aggressive defense. He should get another chance, but his relationships with certain owners as well as his poor history of hiring Offensive Coordinators may keep him in Minnesota despite a truly astonishing defensive turnaround.
Dan Quinn - Cowboys Defensive Coordinator
Quinn was the coach of the Falcons memorable 28-3 collapse, but we shouldn’t let that define his status in the NFL. Coming from Pete Carroll’s elite Seahawks teams, his defenses got a bit stale and outdated in Atlanta as the league figured out how to beat it, but he’s had an impressive decade in the NFL. His Falcons tenure was good for the most part, until it fell apart at the end. He then took the Cowboys DC job, and turned around that unit until the very end when they fell to the Packers in the Wild Card round. Quinn is a great leader and has a natural eye for identifying assistant coaches, and he’s a good (but not amazing) candidate for a head coaching gig.
The young, hot-shot offensive minds
Bobby Slowik - Houston Texans Offensive Coordinator
The Texans exploded onto the scene, in large part due to an offense drastically exceeding expectations. Slowik has done a great job with likely rookie of the year CJ Stroud, and might’ve earned himself a job by tearing apart Cleveland’s #1 ranked defense after a few underwhelming games prior. With that said, his over-reliance on a very bad running game may keep him from landing a job this cycle, and maybe that’ll only make him better.
Frank Smith - Miami Dolphins Offensive Coordinator
Smith is an under-the-radar candidate, but a strong one. He’s a non-playcalling OC, which doesn't often yield head coaching jobs, but he was behind the most innovative and high-flying offenses in the NFL. If he interviews well, he could land a seat in this game of musical chairs.
Dave Canales - Tampa Bay Buccaneers Offensive Coordinator
Talk about a quick rise, Canales was unknown amongst NFL fandom 12 months ago, and even as recently as this summer. However, the Bucs revived Baker Mayfield’s wacky career en route to a shocking division title, in large part due to the offense that people expected to be horrible being, well, pretty good! This comes one season after Seahawks QB Geno Smith revived his career with Canales as the QB coach. I really like some of the stuff Canales has done in Tampa, and his ability to elevate an undersized and limited quarterback may appeal to owners and GMs around the league.
The defense & culture guys
Aaron Glenn - Detroit Lions Defensive Coordinator
Any fanbase bringing in Aaron Glenn may be underwhelmed by the Lions middling defense. However, he’s being hired for his leadership and connections more than schemes. He’s beloved by his players, ranking as the NFLPA’s most vouched for Defensive Coordinator in the league, and while his defenses aren’t perfect, his leadership may land him a job in the same way that Jonathan Gannon did.
Steve Wilks - San Francisco 49ers Defensive Coordinator
Wilks was in a similar boat to Pierce in 2022, as an interim coach for the Carolina Panthers. He didn’t get Carolina’s 2023 job, but he’s done a good job with the 49ers defense. He’s a good leader and defensive mind, and that could land him a job.
Ejiro Evero - Carolina Panthers Defensive Coordinator
Evero was a much hotter candidate last year, but still will get some interviews. He’s led good defenses in Denver and Carolina in each of the past two seasons, despite middling personnel and offenses that consistently put his unit in a bad spot. Both of his head coaches were fired mid-season, so he may have to wait for one stable organization to show his full potential.
My Predictions:
Atlanta Falcons: Bill Belichick
Washington Commanders: Ben Johnson
Carolina Panthers: Frank Smith
Seattle Seahawks: Dan Quinn
Los Angeles Chargers: Jim Harbaugh
Tennessee Titans: Aaron Glenn (predicted before the Brian Callahan hiring)
Las Vegas Raiders: Antonio Pierce (predicted before the official hiring)
The Patriots hired Jerod Mayo before I wrote this part.
This leaves Macdonald and Vrabel, who are among my top coaching candidates, out of the picture. It’s a crowded class, and I'm excited to see how it plays out.