The larger baseball community is speculating on how teams may encourage or restrict usage of these previous challenges, but since it’s a brand new system, there is far from any consensus on the matter. At large, predicting the discrete outcomes of ABS is an impossible task, but I wanted to give my thoughts on what I think may or may not happen. I’ve split this article up into three sections, with each my more controversial take of each group going second (and being marked with a *)

Section 1 - What I think WON’T Happen

The value of framing won’t die

Framing has long been an underrated but controversial skill in baseball, mostly because it’s all about tricking the umpires into making wrong calls. While it is very possible that we may never see a defensive season as valuable as Patrick Bailey’s recent performances, framing won’t completely die out either.

What people are missing in predicting the total downfall of framing is that good framers can still deter pitches from being challenged. As mentioned by sluggers Brent Rooker and Vinnie Pasquantino on Effectively Wild, there may be times where a hitter thought a pitch was wrongly called a strike, but then they may look at the catcher’s framing of the ball and get tricked out of their instinct. Also, these challenges aren’t unlimited, so good framing catchers will still steal a ton of strikes over the course of a full season.

Experienced players won’t dominate the challenge system*

This is possibly my biggest ‘zag’ of this whole article, as it’s assumed that veterans will get the lion’s share of a team’s challenges due to their experience and status. We even see this idea in other sports, where many NBA stars (like Jaylen Brown) will complain about younger players who draw lots of fouls, citing that favorable whistles should be reserved for older players.

But I think that the younger players, growing up and learning the game with more strike zone data, will prove to be good judges of the zone when at bat. I don’t think that the age and experience of a batter will determine their success rate when challenging, though for catchers and pitchers that may very well be the case.

Section 2 - What I think MIGHT Happen

Teams will determine which pitch types to challenge

Players have had blind spots regarding certain pitches for as long as the curveball has existed, as shown by their higher chase rates outside of the strike zone on certain pitch types. Due to these blind spots, players may erroneously challenge at a higher rate on breaking balls than fastballs. It makes sense logically, as fastballs are less likely to have enough movement to look like balls while being strikes than breaking pitches.

What I’m less certain about is the types of pitches that teams will challenge more frequently within the umbrellas of fastball and breaking ball. For example, I have zero idea if sliders, curveballs, changeups, or the emerging splitters will be challenged at higher rates. I imagine that due to off-speed being more frequently thrown on two-strike higher leverage counts, they may see inflated challenge numbers relative to what they should, even after teams adjust for the lower probability of a successful challenge. What I do know is that teams should pay close attention to which pitch types are better to challenge and hitters should challenge accordingly.

Teams will begin to optimize which pitch locations to challenge*

This is a similar take to my previous one, but a little less intuitive. While pitch types look the same to every hitter, location will always appear different, due to head placement and batting stance. With that said, hitters can still isolate where they think a pitched miss, whether that be up, down, inside (closer to the hitter), or outside (away from the hitter). Some hitters have different senses of the zone, and we know that because some hitters chase in different directions than others. In high school, I definitely had a worse sense of inside pitches, so I’m definitely familiar with this.

One hitter who may reflect this mindset is the best in baseball, Aaron Judge. He had the eighth-most wrongly called strikes against him among hitters who saw 2500+ pitches in 2025, many of which were lower pitches. For one of baseball’s tallest hitters (at 6’7), he may be instructed to consider his stature when making challenge decisions, and will likely benefit from challenging lower pitches more than other players.

Section 3 - What I think WILL Happen

Teams will filter for high-leverage situations

This one is incredibly obvious, but it feels important to say anyways. I’m certain that sometime this season, there will be an egregious miss on an 0-0 count with nobody on base that doesn’t get challenged. Fans will be livid, but teams won’t allow players to challenge in those situations just because the reward for a successful challenge is so low. Risking losing a challenge, on a pure expected value basis, will almost always be a net negative in these low leverage situations. On the other hand, I’m sure that ninth innings, full counts, and runners-on situations will feature increased challenge rates.

What is more unknown to me is what leverage cutoff may exist for teams. For example, if there’s a 3-0 count with two out and nobody on base, will a player challenge a strike call? If they win, they get the base, but it may not matter if they can draw a walk from a still-favorable 3-1 count. There’s a lot to consider, and I imagine that teams will care about expected run probability, but I don’t know how dire an inning has to get before they ban players from challenging altogether.

*Note: The overall percentage of pitches challenged will increase into counts, but the percentage of challenges used on later pitches won’t stand out as much due to early counts being a larger proportion of all pitches (every at-bat sees a first pitch pitch, not all see a sixth).*

Pitchers will be the losers of the challenge system*

This may seem crazy, as it’s very bold to say that the player with the clearest view of the zone as interpreted by the machines verifying challenges will be the least effective at judging the zone. However, I do anticipate pitchers to struggle more with challenging than anticipated, mostly due to being victims of framing themselves. Also, it’s difficult to judge if a ball went through an arbitrary square when you’re >50 feet away, even if you’re looking at it.

The other variable at play here is that the majority of incorrect calls are should-be balls called as strikes, meaning that at more points in the game, a hitter challenge would succeed. I suppose an even bolder prediction would be that we’ll see pitcher-initiated challenges fade throughout the year (or few years), but that requires knowing the initial rate at which pitchers will be initiating challenges, which is an impossible prediction to make.

I look forward to going back to this article in 2027, analyzing the stats, and seeing where I went right or wrong here.

Subscribe now

The Issues

The traditional Fantasy Football ruleset has the issue that it’s too misrepresentative of on-field quality, as in the good fantasy players aren’t always the players who stand out on the field, which makes it harder for newer fans to use fantasy football to better understand the sport. One might think that Patrick Mahomes, 3-time Super Bowl Champion, should be a first round pick. However, he got taken outside of the first five rounds in most leagues, despite being one of the greatest players ever.

Super-flex, a format where you start two Quarterbacks instead of one every week, is the only real alternative to standard redraft. Players like Mahomes will go in one of the first three rounds, which is closer to his appropriate value as a football player, but still not high enough. This format tackles some of the issues the format has, but even within QBs, scoring is deeply unbalanced.

There are some other issues that I have with Fantasy Football as a more dedicated football fan that have to do with competitive balance. Mid-game injuries are killer, matchups can punish you with a loss even if your team thrived, and PPR (1 point per reception) scoring inflates receivers like Wan’Dale Robinson, who routinely make 6-yard catches that don’t meaningfully help his offense.

Even for casual fans, I think there are some issues. The structure of a fantasy league is pretty rigid, as you can only have an even number of managers, and it’s really challenging to start mid-season. Also, teams often get super killed by injuries and have no incentive to try if comeback potential isn’t weighed in.

Ideally, I’d like to have multiple game-modes for different kinds of fantasy players. One may have the standard scoring, one may incorporate some more competitively balanced components, and one may go all-out.

With that out of the way, here is a list of 6 changes I’d propose to add to Fantasy leagues, ranked from what I’m most passionate to least passionate about.

Proposals 1 and 2 are what I’d add to the base format for casual fans.

1. Add Penalty Points

Have you ever had a receiver miss a catch, but the team gets the yardage anyways due to a penalty call? Well, the player receives zero fantasy points for that play where they functionally won and deserved many. I think this rule (or lack thereof) is very frustrating and could do with a change. My proposal: have positive penalty yards count the same as receiving yards, but give no credit for the reception or first down. Penalties inherently give guaranteed yardage to non-guaranteed receptions, so I think not giving the entire value of the catch but the vast majority is fair.

The main roadblock for this rule is the data collection, as most traditional scorecards of NFL games don’t keep track of the victim of a penalty. This, however, would be a very good change if implemented.

Another random scoring quirk I might include would be that a QB gets +6 instead of +4 for a TD in the final 2 minutes that involves a lead-change. It’d be a cool way to reward clutch plays. Also, as a parody of the funny 100 point QB tackle league, I think it’d be cool to give a point for an offensive player getting a tackle, which shouldn’t happen more than once a game.

2. Normalize FAAB (Free Agent Auction Budget)

When I first started playing fantasy football about ten years ago, I struggled to understand the waiver system. The idea of having a waiver claim where on only some days you fall down the order while on others you can do it for free brings up several problems. You almost always have to check on Wednesday and pick up the defense you want immediately, because you don’t want to use your waiver spot but you really want one specific replacement to play because your defense is on its bye week.

FAAB is way simpler. Every manager gets a certain budget to bid, and twice a week, the league gathers up the bids on every player, and the highest bidder wins the player. That manager subtracts the cost of the winning bid from their overall budget permanently, while everyone else keeps their budget. I think the idea of a budget that is unaffected by the actions of others is much simpler than a waiver order that constantly changes based on the actions of others is much easier to understand, and easier to play with (re: defenses point).

Also, while we’re at it, release waiver results midday instead of when everyone’s asleep. It makes everything more fun, as you can possibly watch the waiver results release together with your league-mates.

Proposals 3 and 4 are what I’d add to an intermediate, “Perfect Scoring” format.

3. Quarterbacks shouldn’t get more points for Rushing than Passing.

In most formats, each rushing yard is 0.1 points, as opposed to passing yards, which are 0.04 or 0.05. Rushing Touchdowns also give 6 points, while most leagues only give 4 for Passing Touchdowns. Players like Matthew Stafford, who is my 6th ranked QB in the league based on quality of play, almost never make it onto Fantasy teams, largely due to him having zero rushing output. The fact that a player like Matthew Stafford can greatly outplay his opponent, throw for 300 yards and 1 TD (16 points), gets outscored by a QB with 150 pass yards, and rush for 50 yards and 1 TD (17 points), is very flawed.

While Quarterbacks like Stafford are very disrespected by Fantasy scoring, there are many examples on the other end. The most egregious example is Justin Fields, who had a poor season in 2022, but he was among the 5 highest scoring QBs in Points Per Game. He logged tons of rushing yards and rushing touchdowns, which count for nearly twice as much as passing yards and touchdowns.

My Proposal: scale down ALL QB Yards and Touchdowns by the same multiplier. I think it’s more appropriate to have the players who are statistically involved in the most plays to have their scoring scaled down, or else the position would be so disproportionately impactful towards the results of a week.

4. Points should be Awarded for First Downs, not Receptions.

I’m not the first person to suggest this, but I think it’s a much better representation of success on the field. In our current scoring system, these two plays are worth the same.

I think this is flawed, and often rewards low-impact plays. Awarding a point for each first down, in my eyes, would remove a point from plays that largely do not deserve one, while adding one for plays that do. It would also sort of “offset” the QB points scale-down, as passing first downs wouldn’t count, but rushing would (in the same way that an Anytime-TD bet only cashes on rushing or receiving TDs).

In addition, I would also maintain 0.5 points per reception. Doing this would ensure that wide receivers and tight ends aren’t falling too far behind, and would make touchdowns volatility less impactful, as without 0.5ppr added to this system, fantasy points would be deflated due to there being about 2 more receptions than first downs in the average game in 2025 (though both numbers are around 30-35).

Proposals 5 and 6 would be in an all-out competitively balanced format, even though it’s more difficult to understand.

5. Matchups should still exist, but Overall Points should matter too.

Head-to-head matchups are objectively fun, even though they’re not balanced. Each week, you play one opponent, and in some leagues, a lot of the fun is trash-talking your opponent and rooting against their players. However, there are some cases where a matchup robs you of a win you deserve, with zero control over your opponent’s team.

Have you ever scored the third-most points in a week, but your opponent had the 38-point running back and 32-point quarterback? Well I certainly have. In those scenarios, you 100% deserve to win in that week over someone else in your league who you probably outscored by 30, but they passed you in the standings on the ~5% chance that they played the worst team while you played the best.

So, while matchups are fun, there should be alternatives. The most logical alternative is just to measure on points scored all season, but that makes the first 80% of the season feel so meaningless. My proposal: placement-based scoring. The idea behind this would be to award managers for their placement within the league that week. For example, the team that scores the most points in a week may get 15 points on the week, 2nd may get 12, 3rd 10, 4th 9, etc. There are a few scales that could work, but I think that generally rewarding top weeks more than punishing poor ones is a good process. I’d like to even see a boost come in the final week or two of the regular season, just to keep losing teams from being completely eliminated too early on. This system, however, would disappear for the postseason in weeks 15-17.

Another benefit to this system is that it enables you to create leagues with an odd number of participants. You can play with 9 people and eliminate matchups, and still function as a league without bye weeks. This will eliminate some groups not starting a league because they have an awkward number of players, and make the experience smoother overall.

6. Add Some New Positions

While I like the current format, I think there could be more intrigue to fantasy football. After all, fantasy is mostly a way to get to know and attach to people in the NFL, so there could be some additions. The main two ideas I had were Punter and Head Coach.

For Punters, they should get points for two things: longest punt, and number of pins. I’m not sure of the exact scoring yet, but it should score below kickers (who themselves score too high as is). For head coaches, they should get points for winning, and maybe more for more impressive wins (like divisional wins). I think this would add some good variety to fantasy football.

My Ideal Scoring

Quarterback Scoring

• Pass and Rush Yards: 0.05 points per yard (penalty yardage included)

• Pass and Rush TD: 4 points

• 1st down (rushing/receiving): 1 point*

• Turnover: -2 points*

• 300+ Total Yards: 1.5 points

• 400+ Total Yards: 2 points (3.5 total)

• 500+ Total Yards: 2.5 points (6 total)
  

Running Back, Wide Receiver, and Tight End Scoring

• All Yards: 0.1 points per yard (including penalty yards)

• Any TD: 6 points

• Reception: 0.5 points

• 1st down (rushing/receiving): 1 point*

• Turnover: -2 points*

• 100+ Total Yards: 1.5 points

• 150+ Total Yards: 2 points (3.5 total)

• 200+ Total Yards: 2.5 points (6 total)

Kicker Scoring

• Longest kick: 0.1 points per yard

• PAT made: 0.5 points

• PAT missed: -1.5 points

• 20-54 yard FG made: 1 point (no points for sub-20 yard FGs, that’s cowardly coaching)

• 20-54 yard FG missed: -1 point

• 55+ yard FG made: 1.5 points

• 55+ yard FG missed: -0.5 points

Ex: a kicker who made a 55yd, 35yd, 3XPs, and missed a 45yd would earn 5.5+1+1.5-1 = 7 points. Most kickers should get under 10 points under this system, which is good considering punters will also be included.

Punter Scoring

• Longest punt: 0.1 points per yard

• Punt puts opponent behind their 20 yard line: 1 point

• Punt puts opponent behind their 10 yard line: 1 point (2 total)

• Successful fake punt: 3 points

• Unsuccessful fake punt: -1 point
  

Head Coach Scoring

• Win by 17 points or more: 9 points

• Win by 9-16 points: 7 points

• Win by 1-8 points: 6 points

• Tie: 4 points

• Lose by 1-8 points: 3 points

• Lose by 9-16 points: 2 points

• Lose by 17 points or more: 0 points

• Divisional win: 1 point
  

Weekly Scoring

• 8 team league: Matchup win = 4 points (customizable)

  • 1st - 10 points / 2nd - 8 / 3rd - 6 / 5 / 4 / 3 / 2 / 1

• 10 team league: Matchup win = 5 points (customizable)

  • 1st - 12 points / 2nd - 10 / 3rd - 8 / 6 / 5 / 4 / 3 / 2 / 1 / 0

• 12 team league: Matchup win = 6 points (customizable)

  • 1st - 15 points / 2nd - 12 / 3rd - 10 / 9 / 8 / 7 / 6 / 5 / 4 / 3 / 2 / 1

• 14 team league: Matchup win = 7 points (customizable)

  • 1st - 17 points / 2nd - 14 / 3rd - 12 / 11 / 10 / 9 / 8 / 7 / 6 / 5 / 4 / 3 / 2

• 16 team league: Matchup win = 8 points (customizable)

  • 1st - 20 points / 2nd - 17 / 3rd - 15 / 13 / 12 / 11 / 10 / 9 / 8 / 7 / 6 / 5 / 4 / 3 / 2 / 1

• Any odd number of teams: no matchups.
  

So, as for possible game-modes, here’s what I’d do:

1. Casual: The current format, but with FAAB scoring and penalty yards (Proposals 1-2).

2. Intermediate: Casual, but with Points per First Down and the QB Multiplier (Proposals 1-4).

3. Expert: Intermediate, but with New Positions and Placement Points (Proposals 1-6).
   

Would you want to see one of the major fantasy football platforms adopt this as an alternate game-mode?

With that said, here are my 12 biggest takeaways from the 2024 NFL Season:

#1 - Running Backs are valuable again… depending on one condition.

In 2017, the draft had so many RB prospects that drafting one highly almost seemed silly. Yes, Leonard Fournette and Christian McCaffrey were elite prospects, but you could get players like Aaron Jones and Alvin Kamara several rounds later, who provided 90% of the value at 10% of the cost. In the years following the 2017 draft, the theory that RBs were very easily replaceable made sense and was adopted by more analytical NFL fans.

But the depth at this position has eroded over time, and running the ball has been more important than ever. The difference between the top running backs and their backups isn’t as small as it was five years ago, where teams would be paying players like Ezekiel Elliott elite money even though Tony Pollard, his backup, was arguably more explosive.

Saquon Barkley is obviously the biggest example of this trend, as he was a transformative piece in the Eagles’ recent Super Bowl win. However, just because the Giants let him go doesn’t mean that they made a mistake. They actually did replace Saquon with a committee led by rookie Tyrone Tracy, getting more bang for their buck than they could have gotten from re-signing Barkley.

I’d argue that the Giants might’ve made the right call letting Barkley go, because I believe that Running Backs are worth investing in if you have a good offensive infrastructure and are at least a playoff team.

This condition makes sense at a granular level for both teambuilding and on-field impact. For teambuilding, RBs typically have short careers relative to other positions, so if you aren’t competing, there isn’t a great reason to hold on to a RB who almost certainly will be gone by the time your team is ready to make a run to the Super Bowl. On the field, bad offensive systems will likely constrain the RB to the first level of the defense. There isn’t a massive difference between superstars and replacement level players within the first few yards, as the results there largely depend on if blockers succeeded at their assignments. However, offenses that can more consistently give their RBs enough ground to get going can maximize the best runners in the sport by more consistently setting them up for the possibility of a breakaway run.

Saquon Barkley wasn’t especially helpful on the Giants, but with Eagles blocking, he had more opportunities to use his talent. The same goes for Christian McCaffrey, who was far more useful to the 49ers than he was to the Panthers. Overall, I don’t see Saquon’s breakout season as a total end to the “RBs don’t matter” movement, but it’s clear that the pendulum had swung too far that way.

#2 - Don’t let a Quarterback’s age deter you from drafting them.

This lesson definitely applies to myself, as I wasn’t a huge fan of Jayden Daniels and Bo Nix as prospects. I took the stance “of course they’re dominant in College, they’re way older than anybody else there,” without contextualizing why they took as long as they did to break out, and refusing to consider other explanations for their improvements.

Daniels had some clear flaws in his game, but during the 2023 LSU season, he transformed his play. His processing and mental sharpness shined, and I was a fool to think that he couldn’t make that kind of progress in 2023 again in 2024. One tool he used was Virtual Reality, functionally allowing him to simulate games and get good reps in. In his 2024 season, first in the NFL, he transformed his scrambling tendencies, becoming a QB who was a threat to throw outside of the pocket, rather than the LSU version of Jayden Daniels who only scrambled to run.

Although on the surface, it seems like this playstyle change was impossible to predict, the strides he made mentally in 2023 should’ve shown myself and other evaluators that he is improving at a really fast rate. The reps in college helped him be more comfortable reading defenses in the NFL, and playing against lower-level competition when he had already turned 23 probably helped him develop in the long-run. With Daniels’s success and Anthony Richardson’s failure, evaluators like myself need to reconsider if QBs with tons of college seasons under their belt are a red flag or a green flag.

Picture of Jayden Daniels, image credit to the Washington Post.

#3 - Teams should extend their young talent as soon as they can.

This one is probably obvious, yet the Cowboys fall victim to waiting out extensions until the last possible minute. With Dak Prescott and Ceedee Lamb, they had opportunities to sign them in March of their given extension seasons, but Jerry Jones opted not to.

If an owner is unsure if a talent is worth retaining, I understand waiting, but Lamb and Prescott were anything but that. Ceedee Lamb could’ve easily been signed for $36.9 million annually before the Vikings signed Justin Jefferson to that figure, but once Jefferson was under contract, Lamb wanted to out-earn Jefferson, and he wasn’t going to take any less than the $38 million AAV they settled on.

The process of extending players as soon as you know you want them long-term works so well because the salary cap increases every year. If you’re paying a player 15% of the salary cap in 2024, that same salary may shrink to close to 10% of the salary cap in 2027, making the deal easily worth it. It’s basic economics, buy your players when they won’t be any cheaper, and reap the benefits.

No organization reaped the benefits than the loaded Philadelphia Eagles, who extend everyone early. They extended Devonta Smith, Saquon Barkley, AJ Brown, and Jalen Hurts as soon as they could, and are underpaying the newly established markets for similar players because they did their contracts first. Owners like Jerry Jones who are unwilling to admit that extending players early is optimal will likely see their teams fall short due to them taking on such a rough competitive disadvantage.

#4 - Don’t give rookie QBs to hot-seat regimes.

This one is probably obvious, yet the Chicago Bears fall for it every few years. Young quarterbacks often need to be put on timelines that prioritize their long-term development, so allowing a GM or Head Coach to make decisions on his future because they are worried about saving their jobs is malpractice. The Bears have amazingly done this with their last three quarterbacks. Firing the coaching staffs of Mitchell Trubisky’s, Justin Fields’s, and Caleb Williams’s rookie seasons.

Developing a quarterback is a difficult task, and even teams who take all of the right steps can still fail at nurturing good passers. I think back to a recent Kevin O’Connell (Vikings HC) quote, stating "I just think, as a whole, there's not enough emphasis put on the organization's role in the development of the (QB) position. I believe organizations fail young QBs before young QBs fail organizations.” O’Connell, a failed NFL QB turned successful NFL Head Coach, agrees with the trends and data that indicate that the QB, HC, and GM need to all be on the same timeline.

This also applies to Anthony Richardson, whom the Colts let Chris Ballard select, despite Ballard being a very untrustworthy GM at the time (who I thought should have been fired). The first two years of Richardson’s career have shown me that Ballard needs to be replaced, but because Richardson is around, the Colts had to hold on to a bad GM because any other GM would ditch the young QB and get their own passer. I just hope that the Giants don’t ruin Jaxson Dart’s development by making a desperation move, and that he’s given a real chance with Brian Daboll. If not, I fear the Giants will be making the same mistakes that have haunted Chicago in their recent past.

Photo of Caleb Williams (Left) and Matt Eberflus (Right), image credit to Chicago Sun-Times.

#5 - If your TE cannot block, he is no more than a mediocre slot receiver.

With the emergence of Nickel defense (5 defensive backs, as opposed to base defense with 4 DBs), defenses consistently play at least five DBs whenever the offense uses three WRs. A common way to get a team out of Nickel is to substitute one of three WRs for a second TE, as many defenses respond to that substitution by taking off a DB for a linebacker.

However, there exists some TEs who aren’t good enough blockers to justify the opposing defense needing to add a linebacker. Take Buffalo’s Dalton Kincaid, for example. He’s an exceptional receiver for a TE, but if teams treat him like they would a WR and keep 5 DBs on the field, he should be evaluated largely against other WRs.

Slot Wide Receivers have also become much better blockers. They aren’t fitting the stereotype as often as they have. As opposed to players like Julian Edelman, who are extremely small but have incredible short-area burst and quickness, many modern slot receivers are bigger players like Cooper Kupp.

This trend got popular in the late 2010s, as playcallers such as Kyle Shanahan and Sean McVay would design entire offenses around Outside Zone, a run concept that fundamentally aims to get fast RBs in space 1-on-1 against smaller defenders such as defensive backs. Obviously, you can’t get to the perimeter without working through where a slot receiver would be, so these schemes would prioritize slot WRs who could block more than other offenses because the pillar of their run attacks were built on having a WR who could block defensive backs pursuing tackles.

The rise of Nickel defense and blocking-proficient slot WRs have made receiving-only TEs almost a relic of the past, almost stuck in between being good enough blockers to be a good TE and good enough receivers to be a WR. This is why if a TE can’t block, he unfortunately needs to be compared to WRs, as that's how defenses treat them.

#6 - Let other teams evaluate Linebackers for you.

The emergence of play-action in the late 2010s, where teams would fake a handoff in hopes of luring linebackers away from zones in the middle of the field to throw to, put linebackers in conflict so often and demanded them to basically guess if a handoff was a play-action fake or a real running play.

Since then, drafting linebackers in the first few rounds has largely not worked out. Even the players who panned out, like Baltimore’s Roquan Smith and Miami’s Jordyn Brooks, took so long to learn the position that they’ve had their best years on their second teams. This long development curve exists because of how different the position is in College vs the NFL, and it makes drafting LBs highly an endeavor that almost never returns value.

Plenty of teams have found tons of success chasing second-contract LBs, more than just Smith and Brooks. The Giants signed Bobby Okereke, the Raiders with Robert Spillane, Vikings with Blake Cashman, Texans with Azeez Al-Shaiir, Packers with De’Vondre Campbell, and many more.

This isn’t to say that early-drafted LBs will always fail, that’s not the case, and I actually really like Jihaad Campbell, the lone first-round LB in the 2025 draft. And just because it may be smart to avoid taking early-round LBs, that doesn’t make ignoring the position like the Rams have a good strategy either. However, spending such a valuable resource on a (relatively speaking) low-success rate position is very often a worse strategy than signing players with a few years of experience who are often more productive on the field.

Picture of Jordyn Brooks, image credit to Action News Jax.

#7 - Any viable NFL defense needs to disguise some of its coverages.

Disguising coverages used to be a niche thing that few NFL teams did even as recently as three years ago. In 2024, the five NFL teams hired from a coaching tree that emphasized disguised coverages in a way that dominated 2023, and will likely change the NFL for years to come.

Everyone wants to replicate the 2023 Ravens defense. Why wouldn’t they? After all, Baltimore had debatably the best defense in the NFL last season and did so without a dominant defensive line, which is an anomaly in top defenses. 2023 Ravens Defensive Coordinator and now-Seahawks Head Coach Mike Macdonald brought his scheme from Michigan to the NFL, one that thrived on disguised coverages.

Many previous trendy defenses have been built on trade-offs, such as the early 2020s Vic Fangio-influenced schemes that prevented explosive plays in exchange for being weaker against opposing run plays. Rather than present a new coverage, new formations, or new shells, the act of disguising whatever they’re running by lining up in a formation typically presented in another type of coverage. Most commonly, teams disguise the “shell” of their defense, that being basically whether or not they are playing with an even number (often two) of safeties deep, leaving the middle of the field open (MOFO) versus playing with an odd number of safeties deep, thus putting one directly in the middle of the field and closing it off (MOFC).

This system presents space in defense pre-snap and then takes it away post-snap, forcing opposing quarterbacks to diagnose the coverage in the (literally) two seconds they have before the opposing pass rush collapses the pocket.

Disguising coverages seem like they have no drawbacks on the surface, but they are harder to implement and teach to younger players, making it a risky proposition for defensive coordinators. Lou Anaroumo’s Bengals are the best example of this risk, as his 2021 defense that stumped Patrick Mahomes with tons of disguised coverages en route to a Super Bowl appearance with tons of veteran players like Vonn Bell and Chidobe Awuzie. However, Cincinnati’s defense was among the worst in the NFL in 2024, in large part due to his scheme being much harder for the much younger Bengals roster to execute how he wanted it.

Disguised coverages are still largely a very effective strategy, and teams like Gus Bradley’s Colts, who never use them, often get diced up by good playcallers and Quarterbacks due to their predictability. One evolution I’m interested in with disguised coverages this season is evaluating if QB scrambles are more effective against disguised coverages due to less players being able to always keep their eyes on the QB because they’re shifting their responsibilities/zones on the second and third levels. Though it’s not a beats-all solution to defense, disguised coverages are a necessary component to a good defense in 2025.

#8 - If you make an aggressive trade, you better be a contender.

Truthfully, the team that gains a draft pick gets the better end of a trade far more frequently than the casual fan would expect. Take, for example, the Matthew Judon trade. The Patriots got the Falcons’ 3rd round pick for Judon, as Atlanta desperately wanted a good pass rusher while New England was clearly years away from competing.

The Judon example is among the worst, but rarely ever is it worth it for teams to trade draft picks in the first few rounds for a player past their prime. Here is a list of every player traded for a third round pick or better in 2024, and how the trade fared for the team trading away a pick.

As you can see, every single trade has gone poorly for the team trading away a draft pick. They had to pay salary, give away a draft pick (which are extremely valuable in the NFL), and many of the traded players have already switched teams. The one recent example of an aggressive non-QB trade like this one working out for the team trading away a pick was the Rams’ trade for Von Miller, as he was a key piece in their 2021 Super Bowl win.

The one trade where you could argue the value was appropriate was Brian Burns, and while I somewhat agree, the issue with that trade is that the Giants are years away from being competitive, so the second-rounder may be more valuable for them specifically.

Now, I have to clarify that the recent Micah Parsons trade is different, as although I still think the Packers gave up a lot, they did so for a player who is nearly guaranteed to be one of the five best defenders in the NFL for the rest of this decade. The trade was a slight underpay, but not a drastic one, and I think it’s far worse for Dallas than it is good for Green Bay. Players like Parsons, who is one of ten best players in the NFL and only 26 years old, are worth giving up huge draft pick hauls for.

In most of these cases, however, you need a 90th percentile outcome for a trade to return value, and you need to be competitive right away for it to make sense long-term. So, next time you see an old player like Deebo Samuel or Marshon Lattimore be traded for a mid-round draft pick, don’t panic that your team didn’t make that trade, as odds are they’re dodging a bullet.

#9 - Guards and Defensive Tackles are becoming premium positions

For a while, Left Tackles and Edge Rushers were the only linemen who would even get close to being the highest-paid non-QB. As teams play more nickel defense, they’re committing less players to stopping the run, meaning that each player is more important in run defense than they have been before. That’s where Defensive Tackles come in, being the anchor of run defense.

Nose Tackles are often under-appreciated because they don’t stuff the box score, but their absence is seen when they aren’t on the field. Take the Bengals, whose run defense cratered once DJ Reader left for the Lions. The Colts also saw a massive dropoff when Grover Stewart got suspended in October of 2023, going from allowing just one of their first 6 opponents to each 100 RB rushing yards to all 6 opponents reaching that mark during his suspension. Their appearances aren’t flashy, but good interior defensive linemen can keep opposing running games in check.

Offensive Guards also fit into this equation, but they benefit from an entirely different set of trends, one among many being the increase in running Quarterbacks. With many QBs able to take advantage of clean pockets and stepping up in the pocket to get high-value scrambles, the success of an offense’s interior is highlighted more in today’s game than it has been before. Again, there are tons of reasons why Guards are getting paid more relative to other positions than they have been previously, but this is one example I’ve noticed lately.

#10 - Cash Spending Determines Margin for Error

While the NFL is technically the only big-4 American sports league with a proper salary cap, the mechanics of the cap still give advantages to teams with cash-rich owners. This is due to restructuring and signing bonuses, essentially allowing owners to pay more money up front in signing bonuses, and in exchange for being more flexible with cash short-term, they spread out the cap hit of said signing bonus throughout the duration of a contract (and sometimes longer).

This allows teams that are trying to win a Super Bowl to be very aggressive. For example, if a contender had <$5M left in cap space, but wanted to sign a player to a $8M contract for one year, they could. They’d use void years, and essentially have the player be a $2-3M dead cap hit for the second and third years when they will be on a different team, in order to keep the year 1 cap hit to around $4M.

Owners like Philadelphia’s Jeffery Lurie are constantly able to go all-in on winning cores, backloading the contracts of star players such as Jalen Hurts and AJ Brown. Both Hurts and Brown, as well as most of the Eagles, are making much lower than their annual average early on in their contracts, and they’ll often re-extend with the team whenever they reach their more expensive years with the team.

Jalen Hurts is the most egregious example, as he’s only counting for $22M against the cap in 2025 (up from a puny $14M in 2024), when he’ll be making more than double that figure in just 2 years, and he also has a ton of void years where Hurts counts against $30-40M of the cap but isn’t on the team, essentially pushing his cap hits into the future. So, while the NFL does have a salary cap, there is still a massive pay-to-win element of salary management, one that becomes even more relevant as teams structure contracts as aggressively as ever

Picture of Jeffery Lurie (Left) and Jalen Hurts (Right), image credit to Bleeding Green Nation.

#11 - Free Agency is Won by Teams who Chase Miscast Players

Like the Draft, NFL Free Agency is a crapshoot. Players like Zack Baun will be signed to minimum contracts and become all-pros, while teams like the Raiders will pay Christian Wilkins a market-correcting deal and release him just one season later. In general, what we don’t realize is that for every Zack Baun, there’s tons of failed experiments, but it’s still worth the very low-risk gamble of getting an impact starter. Signing players who didn’t pan out with their first teams, like Baun or Sam Darnold, is like a nearly free lottery ticket.

To make the math behind this theory even simpler, let’s say that Patrick Queen cost the Steelers $15M per year. It may be smarter to instead spend that money on several players, functionally just to have more bites at the apple. Now, I’m not saying to never spend on good players, but teams should aim every year to try a few reclamation projects, because their cost is nearly nothing while their reward could be a Lombardi Trophy.

#12 - My Weak Link Article still Applies

If you enjoyed this article, read my article on optimal roster construction when it comes to premium positions such as Wide Receiver and Edge Rusher versus Offensive Tackle and Cornerback.

This is a predictive mock draft, meaning that the picks here are what I think will happen, not what I would do if I was picking for every team. However, this exercise is super hard, and most people don’t even get close to half of the picks correct. I’m also not going to predict a trade, as although I’m almost certain there will be trades, trying to predict them is such a crapshoot that it’s not worth it. Let’s get into it…

1: Tennessee Titans - Cam Ward, QB, Miami

Ward has flaws, but his profile is worthy of the first pick in most drafts. He’s improved in every season in college, going from Incarnate Word to Washington State to Miami, and that determination shows in his strong leadership skills as well. He’s good within the structure of the play, and has some magical plays on the run.

His fatal flaw is his tendency to make some stupid throws from time to time, but some of that can be explained by his terrible defense forcing him to take risks. The Titans need a QB after Will Levis’s comically disastrous season, and they’ve spent all offseason investing in an Offensive Line to protect their rookie QB.

Other possible picks: there are none, Ward will be a Titan.

2: Cleveland Browns - Travis Hunter, CB/WR, Colorado

Travis Hunter could be the Shohei Ohtani of football. He played on both offense and defense at Colorado, a feat that basically nobody has ever done in the highest levels of competition. Hunter is probably the best receiver in this class and definitely the best Cornerback.

The one hold-up with Hunter is his size, as his smaller frame may not hold up playing more snaps than anyone else in the NFL, a league with even more freak athletes than college football. The Browns need both WR and CB (though they need WR more), so Hunter makes sense for them as well.

Other possible picks: Abdul Carter

3: New York Giants - Abdul Carter, EDGE, Penn State

The Giants still need a long-term solution at Quarterback, but Shedeur Sanders isn’t worth this pick. Abdul Carter is the most explosive player in this draft class and has speed off the edge that you almost never see.

He only has one year of experience as an Edge Rusher, yet he’s incredible at it. New York doesn’t badly need a pass rusher, but recent top 5 pick Kayvon Thibodeaux has underwhelmed so far in the NFL, and Carter is easily the best player available.

Other possible picks: Travis Hunter, Shedeur Sanders, Trade back

4: New England Patriots - Will Campbell, OT, Louisiana State

The Patriots badly need a Left Tackle for second-year QB Drake Maye, as their current starter is Vederian Lowe. Will Campbell played as LSU’s Left Tackle for three years, and he was a very formidable protector for several NFL Quarterbacks.

Some teams will prefer him at Guard because he has short arms by NFL standards, and he probably isn’t worth a top 5 pick in most drafts. Even with limited upside, the Patriots almost certainly won’t regret picking a player with as high of a floor as Will Campbell.

Other possible picks: Ashton Jeanty, Tetairoa McMillan, Trade back

5: Jacksonville Jaguars - Ashton Jeanty, RB, Boise State

Everyone thought Mason Graham would go here until this weekend, but the odds are shifting towards Jeanty being the fifth pick, whether that be for Jacksonville or a team that wants to trade up. Ashton Jeanty tore up college football in 2024, with 2,601 rushing yards and 1,970 rushing yards after contact, a number that is almost never reached.

The Jaguars aren’t in immediate need of a Running Back, but they could still use one. Travis Etienne has disappointed for two seasons in a row, and his contract expires after 2025. Jeanty could transform this offense and turn it into a borderline top ten unit.

Other possible picks: Tetairoa McMillan, Mason Graham, Tyler Warren

6: Las Vegas Raiders - Kelvin Banks Jr., OT, Texas

The Raiders were rumored to take Jeanty for a while, but now it looks like they won’t even if he somehow makes it there. Their offensive line is playable, but certainly not great, and there is room to improve on DJ Glaze at Right Tackle. My instincts lean Membou, but Banks’s high character has made him a rapid riser and common pick for Las Vegas.

Kelvin Banks is a somewhat polarizing but very sound prospect. He played for three years as Texas’s Left Tackle, but some evaluators view him as a Guard long-term. Regardless, he’s a scheme fit wherever he lands, and teams should be willing to fail him at Tackle before putting him at Guard.

Other possible picks: Ashton Jeanty, Armand Membou, Mason Graham

7: New York Jets - Armand Membou, OT, Missouri

The draft could get crazy starting here at 7 with the Jets. New York has had nearly no leaks tipping their hand, so I’m going to default to my view of their roster. Their biggest needs are at WR/TE, DT, and Right Tackle. The latter is what I’m going with, as the Jets could build a legitimately great offensive line for Justin Fields.

Armand Membou has tremendous upside as an Offensive Tackle at the NFL level. He’s an incredible athlete, and his traits show up on the field. The NFL will love his traits, and he is technically sound enough to start from day 1. The main question mark on his evaluation is that he has always been on the less valuable right side of the offensive line, so teams looking for a Left Tackle may be less sure about his projection to the next level. Membou is the best player available here; he has the chance to be an All-Pro, and he’s not too far from his ceiling.

Other possible picks: Mason Graham, Tyler Warren, Tetairoa McMillan

8: Carolina Panthers - Jalon Walker, EDGE/LB, Georgia

Carolina is very probable to be the first team to trade out of the top ten this year, as they do not own their own second round pick, but I’m not predicting trades in this exercise. The Panthers ranked near or in last place for every relevant defensive metric last season, which wasn’t surprising given their roster. Their Edge Rushers were the worst of the group, as they had no juice after trading Brian Burns to the Giants.

Jalon Walker is the best the Panthers can do to fill Burns’s void, as he’s a great fit in Defensive Coordinator Ejiro Evero’s defense as a 3-4 stand-up Edge Rusher, and although his status as a lighter rusher makes him a projection, Walker has sky-high upside.

Other possible picks: Mykel Williams, Tyler Warren, Tetaroia McMillain

9: New Orleans Saints - Mykel Williams, EDGE, Georgia

Mykel Williams is going to go earlier than people think, and I think he could be the heir apparent to Cameron Jordan as an Edge Rusher. Williams, who is only 21 years old, is a day-1 strong run defender who will have a runway to develop as pass rusher and learn from Jordan.

The Saints have tons of needs, and when that’s the case, teams often default to the trenches. Defensive Line is both an immediate and future need, given there is no certainty with anyone on that group in New Orleans. I’ve had Williams here for a few days, and it seems as though the rest of NFL Draft media has as well.

Other possible picks: Tetairoa McMillan, Tyler Warren, Jaxson Dart

10: Chicago Bears - Tyler Warren, TE, Penn State

The Bears patched up most of their glaring needs in free agency, so they have the agency to pick their top player available. Although they have Cole Kmet, Warren can start by playing alongside him and turn into a weapon for Ben Johnson’s offense as a menace with the ball in his hands.

Tyler Warren was the entire Penn State Offense in 2024, and they were exceptional. He was their number 1 option in the receiving game, was frequently asked to convert shallow targets into big gains after the catch, and even threw some passes. His blocking is good, though flawed, and he’s not quite the fluid route runner that Brock Bowers was last year. However, I’m willing to bet that Warren will be productive in the NFL.

Other possible picks: Kelvin Banks Jr., Mason Graham, Ashton Jeanty

11: San Francisco 49ers - Walter Nolen, DT, Ole Miss

I’m fairly confident that this pick will be a defensive lineman, given the lack of talent outside of Nick Bosa in that group. Guessing which defensive lineman this will be, however, is a total mess. Between Stewart, Green, Williams, Grant, Harmon, and Nolen, they could take anyone and he’d start immediately.

Walter Nolen has been a late riser, implying that some character concerns may not be as big as perceived. He’s been in college for a while, but his best plays make him look like one of the five best players in this draft. Nolen’s explosiveness and athleticism gives him sky-high upside, and if the right DL coach can fix up his technique and inconsistency, the rest of the league will have trouble game planning for Nolen.

Other possible picks: Mykel Williams, Mike Green, another Defensive Tackle

12: Dallas Cowboys - Tetairoa McMillan, WR, Arizona

The Cowboys have one great Wide Receiver, Ceedee Lamb, but not much else. McMillain is a value pick at a position of need for the Cowboys at 12, and if McMillan hits his ceiling, he can be truly elite. Tee Higgins is a common comparison, and I get it.

He’s 6’4, though he’s thinner and more fluid than most 6’4 WRs, and his volleyball background stands out in his contested catch ability. He’s a polarizing prospect, but a risk that I anticipate Dallas is willing to take.

Other possible picks: Matthew Golden, Mike Green, Ashton Jeanty

13: Miami Dolphins - Mason Graham, DT, Michigan

The Dolphins have a ton of needs, with the departures of Tyreek Hill and Jalen Ramsey looming. They also haven’t had a good Offensive Line in forever, though they seem to be rolling with last year’s 2nd round pick Patrick Paul this year. One spot they badly need to address is Defensive Tackle next to Zach Sieler, and the board lines up nicely for Miami to address this need.

Mason Graham was rumored to go 5th overall up until this week, but the top 5 may not be appropriate for a lineman with clear flaws that limit his upside. He’s got shorter arms by NFL standards, and didn’t reach the dominant athletic standards needed to be a top 5 pick as a DT. Nonetheless, he’s such a sound and pro-ready prospect that whoever drafts him will get immediate 3-down production, and arm length doesn’t take away his talent.

Other possible picks: Kelvin Banks Jr., Jahdae Barron, Grey Zabel

14: Indianapolis Colts - Colston Loveland, TE, Michigan

My favorite team, the Colts, have NOTHING at Tight End. Their TEs last year combined for 39 catches and less yards than now-journeyman Austin Hooper on the Patriots. Luckily for the Colts, Colston Loveland is a top 15 player in this class.

Michigan’s offense was disastrous in 2024, but Loveland played very well in 2023, and has a very strong profile as a fluid mover with great physical traits at just 21 years old. He’s a sound prospect at a position that doesn’t have very many of those, and a very high-upside pick for a Colts regime that constantly chases high-ceiling players.

Other possible picks: Tyler Warren, Grey Zabel, Trade down

15: Atlanta Falcons - Mike Green, EDGE, Marshall

The Falcons have needed pass rushers for as long as I’ve been alive, and this year it looks like they’re finally going to take one in the first round. Walter Nolen has been rumored here a bunch, but it looks like he won’t even make it to them at 15.

Mike Green is considered by many to be the second-best Edge Rusher in the class, but off-field character concerns may push him down the draft. Given their history, I’m betting that Atlanta is willing to overlook the character issues and bet on an incredibly talented rusher who led the nation in sacks in 2024.

Other possible picks: Walter Nolen, Derrick Harmon, Shemar Stewart

16: Arizona Cardinals - Shemar Stewart, EDGE, Texas A&M

The Cardinals have a ton of needs (though not as bad as last year), but they love taking players in the trenches in round 1. Shemar Stewart will have some versatility along the Defensive Line at the NFL level, in part because he’s both a crazy athlete and a very raw prospect.

Shemar Stewart has a Relative Athletic Score (RAS) of 10.00 out of 10.00, and yet he has never eclipsed 1.5 sacks in any season across his college football career. Any team betting on Stewart is hoping that his insane athletic traits can make him a weapon in run defense right away and a potentially incredible pass rusher if he can develop those tools from scratch.

Other possible picks: Grey Zabel, Jahdae Barron, Derrick Harmon

17: Cincinnati Bengals - Derrick Harmon, DT, Oregon

The Bengals defense was truly horrendous last season, and their biggest need is probably up the middle. Last season, the Bengals reportedly wanted Texas’s Byron Murphy II, but the Seahawks got him. This year, Harmon has a similar profile as Murphy did as a strong pass-rushing Defensive Tackle who always moves towards the opposing QB.

Harmon’s medicals may raise red flags, but the talent is undeniable (and I don’t know the medicals, so how can I judge). The Bengals could justifiably take any non-skill position player here given how poor their defense and Guard play were last year, but I’m betting that they address a need they’ve badly wanted for a while.

Other possible picks: Mike Green, Shemar Stewart, Grey Zabel

18: Seattle Seahawks - Grey Zabel, OL, North Dakota State

Zabel has been a fast riser ever since an impressive showing at the Senior Bowl this winter. He’s got incredible agility for an offensive lineman, and despite playing Left Tackle in college, can project anywhere across the interior of the Offensive Line at the NFL level.

The Seahawks Offensive Line has been terrible for years now, maybe even decades. They badly need anyone, particularly on the interior, to protect Sam Darnold. Zabel’s agility fits Offensive Coordinator Klint Kubiak’s zone-heavy scheme well, and Darnold falls apart under pressure. If Seattle can land Zabel, which seems to be a legitimate question at this point, they should run the card in.

Other possible picks: Matthew Golden, Colston Loveland, Will Johnson

19: Tampa Bay Buccaneers - Donovan Ezeiruaku, EDGE, Boston College

I was really close to taking Alabama Linebacker Jihaad Campbell here, but I switched to Ezeiruaku for 2 reasons. First, Campbell has a shoulder injury that may scare teams off. Second, the Bucs badly need a pass rusher, and they love guys with Donovan Ezeiruaku’s profile.

Ezeiruaku is fast and technically sound, and has the burst that Tampa often looks for. The Buccaneers need to restock their defense, and Ezeiruaku is the type of player they dream about.

Other possible picks: Jihaad Campbell, Mike Green, Jahdae Barron

20: Denver Broncos - TreVeyon Henderson, RB, Ohio State

Given the state of their Running Back room, I expect Denver to take a back at some point in the first three rounds of the draft. The need might be dire enough for Head Coach Sean Payton to help out his offense and draft one of the most explosive rushers in this class.

Payton’s offenses with the Saints thrived on strong Running Back play, they love to use their backs in the passing game. TreVeyon Henderson is an explosive runner who adds a ton to any RB room on day 1, and has generated some buzz to go in round 1. He’s a great pass protector and receiving back, and is a threat to score on any play. Though he may never handle a full workload at the NFL level, he can be a Jahmyr Gibbs-type player, more than worth a round 1 pick.

Other possible picks: Omarion Hampton, Derrick Harmon, Emeka Egbuka

21: Pittsburgh Steelers - Shedeur Sanders, QB, Colorado

At this point, it looks like Sanders will be a Steeler or a Brown. I could see Pittsburgh passing on him, but the Steelers run their team unlike most others. The Steelers badly need a Quarterback, whether they can sign 41-year old Aaron Rodgers or not.

Sanders is athletically limited and takes tons of sacks, which is why he won’t go any higher than this. However, he’s a strong processor and has a decent path to being a solid NFL QB, provided that his offensive line holds up. Unlike any other passer in this class, Sanders can play right away, which is a nice bonus for a team that may desperately need him.

Other possible picks: Derrick Harmon, Matthew Golden, Emeka Egbuka

22: Los Angeles Chargers - Matthew Golden, WR, Texas

Michigan’s Kenneth Grant is a probable pick here, but I don’t think the Chargers can pass on Golden. Matthew Golden emerged as a first round pick in 2024, and he should be WR3 in this class. Golden’s much more physical than your average 5’11, 191lb receiver, and he ran an elite 4.29 second 40-yard dash at the combine.

This style of player would be perfect for the Chargers, as QB Justin Herbert can maximize his speed while he maintains the physicality that Head Coach Jim Harbaugh loves. This isn’t a popular pick, but it makes tons of sense for the Chargers at 22.

Other possible picks: Kenneth Grant, Colston Loveland, Will Johnson

23: Green Bay Packers - Maxwell Hairston, CB, Kentucky

The Packers have a need at Cornerback even if longtime star Jaire Alexander is on the roster next season, but even that is a major question mark. I thought about Jahdae Barron for a while, but Maxwell Hairston’s rise makes sense given their reputation as a team that prioritizes athleticism over all else.

He ran a sub-4.3 40-yard dash, he’s young, and has ball production. Cheesehead TV put me onto Hairston as a pick for Green Bay, and even though it’s probably the highest he can go, I’m buying that Hairston can be taken on day 1.

Other possible picks: Jahdae Barron, Matthew Golden, Defensive Line

24: Minnesota Vikings - Malaki Starks, S, Georgia

The Vikings are a popular trade-out spot given their lack of draft picks, and the possible race for Shedeur Sanders and Jaxson Dart between the Giants, Browns, and Saints. However, GM Kwesi Adofo-Mensah has made it clear that his valuation of draft pick slots are not the same as the rest of the league’s, so I’m not certain they’ll actually move back.

As for the pick itself, the Vikings added in the trenches in free agency at the expense of their secondary. They lost the celebrations king Cam Bynum to the Colts, and Harrison Smith isn’t getting any younger. My main curiosity here is if Minnesota is willing to take another Georgia Safety, as they whiffed on Lewis Cine 3 years ago in this same range. I’m willing to bet that Starks is leagues better than Cine, and that the league sees it the same way.

Other possible picks: Trade Back, Jahdae Barron, Nick Emmanwori

25: Houston Texans - Tyler Booker, OG, Alabama

Tyler Booker, though not super athletic by NFL standards, is a traditional mauling Left Guard prospect who simply cannot be moved in a phone booth. The Texans offensive line did about as good of a job fending off attackers as the Atreides did defending Arrakis in one of my favorite movies “Dune”, and in “taking out the trash” with this unit, they traded their all-pro Left Tackle Laremy Tunsil to Washington.

The Texans probably need two starters this draft on the line, and Booker fits that need. Alabama described him as “the Will Anderson of their offense,” and the Texans spent two first round picks on Will Anderson’s combination of strong play and leadership. If Booker makes it to Houston, I don’t think he makes it past them.

Other possible picks: Kelvin Banks Jr., Emeka Egbuka, Josh Conerly Jr.

26: Los Angeles Rams - Josh Conerly Jr, OT, Oregon

I wouldn’t be stunned if the Rams go with a QB or TE here, whether that be Jaxson Dart or Colston Loveland (they would need to move up for Loveland), just because Sean McVay likes to make a splash in the draft. However, I also think that Conerly is 100% their type of prospect who can sit behind Rob Havenstein for a year before he hits free agency and takes the reins at Right Tackle.

Dane Brugler, NFL Draft expert, described Conerly as a “bend-don’t-break” tackle, exactly the type of player that the Rams can get the best out of. LA addressed the trenches last year on defense Jared Verse, and I think they’ll do so on the offensive side this year.

Other possible picks: Colston Loveland, Donovan Jackson, Jaxson Dart

27: Baltimore Ravens - Jihaad Campbell, LB, Alabama

I haven’t seen this pairing often, usually because the best linebacker in this class (and in the last few) doesn’t usually fall to 27 in most mocks. However, I think the Ravens would pounce on this opportunity. The Ravens have so many draft picks that they can afford to take the best player available, and you can argue that linebacker is a need for them.

They benched Trenton Simpson last season, and Roquan Smith took a noticeable step back in his play this year. Provided that his shoulder injury isn’t a major concern, Campbell would be a home-run pick for the best drafting team in the league.

Other possible picks: Donovan Ezeiruaku, Tyler Booker, Will Johnson, literally nothing would surprise me.

28: Detroit Lions - Kenneth Grant, DT, Michigan

The Lions don’t need a Defensive Tackle immediately, but they might soon. DJ Reader is about to turn 31, and Alim McNeill is coming off of a major injury. The Lions had so many injuries up front last season that there is no sufficient amount of depth that would satisfy GM Brad Holmes here.

At a hulking 6’4 and 330lbs, Kenneth Grant is an impressive Nose Tackle with some pass rushing upside. At times, he’s unmovable in the run game, and has shown enough flashes to be a potential 3-down player down the line. Just as a cherry on top, I’m sure Lions fans would love to add a Michigan Wolverine to their squad, just like they did with Aidan Hutchinson.

Other possible picks: Tyler Booker, Nic Scourton, Shemar Stewart

29: Washington Commanders - Omarion Hampton, RB, North Carolina

Despite making the NFC Championship game, the Commanders have tons of holes on their roster. Edge Rusher and Safety stand out, but the board didn’t fall the way they’d like with those two positions. Running Back, however, could be a big position of need for Washington, as both Brian Robinson Jr. and Austin Ekeler’s contracts expire after 2025.

Omarion Hampton is incredibly explosive and makes tons of sense here for Washington at 29. He has three-down upside, and defending a backfield with Hampton and Jayden Daniels would be such a daunting task for any defense. Hampton also doesn’t have too much mileage, meaning he may last longer in the league than some other Running Backs. GM Adam Peters knows from his time in San Francisco what a great runner can do for an offense, and I anticipate him to want to draft a RB early in this draft.

Other possible picks: Nic Scourton, Nick Emmanwori, TreVeyon Henderson

30: Buffalo Bills - Jahdae Barron, DB, Texas

Barron should go higher than this, but he’s perfect for the Bills. He was one of the best Cornerbacks in college football last year, and his athletic testing profile was much better than expected.

Some talent evaluators wonder if he’s athletic enough to hang on the outside in the NFL, but the Bills have experience with smaller Cornerbacks anyways. Even if he can’t hang at CB, he could project to be a very solid Safety, another position of need.

Other possible picks: Tre Amos, Shavon Revel, Kenneth Grant

31: Kansas City Chiefs - Josh Simmons, OT, Ohio State

Josh Simmons could have been the top Offensive Tackle in this year’s draft if not for an early-season leg injury that sidelined him for the whole season. The medical red flags are unfortunately not the only factor in his slide, as there are reports about character concerns with Simmons as well.

However, if there’s one team that takes risks in the draft, it’s the Chiefs. They desperately need an Offensive Tackle, and Simmons is the kind of high-upside prospect they seek out. They can wait for the postseason to play him, and Simmons has All-Pro upside.

Other possible picks: Josh Conerly Jr., Kenneth Grant, Emeka Egbuka.

32: Philadelphia Eagles - Mason Taylor, TE, Louisiana State

It looks like the Eagles are going to trade Dallas Goedert at some point this offseason, leaving a big hole at Tight End. They may trade out of this pick, knowing that they can get Mason Taylor later in the 30s, but he would be a great replacement for Goedert.

Mason Taylor comes from NFL bloodlines, and was an ultra-reliable pass catcher at LSU. He’s drawn a lot of comparisons to Eagles legend Zach Ertz, and Taylor’s prowess as a possession-first TE earns him that level of respect. The Eagles are so loaded that they can justify taking just about anyone here, but I have them getting ahead of what could be a massive need.

Other possible picks: Nic Scourton, Malaki Starks, Trade back

Some other notes:

• I expect either the Giants or Saints to move into the back end of the first round for Jaxson Dart. I’d guess that it’s the Giants, with my only intel being that their GM’s son posted a Jaxson Dart highlight reel on Instagram.

• Between picks 7, 10, 11, and 13, I expect some combination of Tyler Warren and three linemen. I just have no idea when each of those players will go. The Jets have had almost no leaks this year, so that’s where this draft could get wild.

• I had Will Johnson at 13 or 16 for most of April, but it looks like teams are concerned about his injury and speed. I’m following the leaders of the industry in predicting him to fall to the second round, but nothing would surprise me with him at this point.

Recently, Bill Belichick (the best coach ever) point-blank said that real info isn’t leaked until the day of the draft, and the leaks we see beforehand are often pushed by agents. To put it simply, there are a lot of lies floating around regarding where people expect certain prospects to go in the NFL Draft.

Last year was a great example of this, where Will Levis was a near-lock to go in the top 5 last year (I never believed this, to be honest) and he ended up falling to round 2. Meanwhile, CJ Stroud, who was eventually the number 2 overall pick, shot up from a long shot to go 2nd to a favorite in the final hours before Houston was on the clock. Needless to say, the draft is a highly chaotic process, so rather than trying to predict every selection, I've instead identified the most important things to look out for in the draft.

Who does Washington take at 2?

I’m choosing not to believe whatever I’m hearing from the Washington Commanders about the second overall pick. Most national reports have had the Commanders taking LSU’s Heisman Trophy winner Jayden Daniels, but I’m not buying it. Years of history tell us that it’s not worth trusting an NFL team regarding which quarterback they’ll take. We had the Herbert/Tua debate in 2020, Lance/Mac in 2021, the Malik Willis hype of 2022, and the aforementioned Will Levis last year. The debate in 2021 lingers in my mind, as Washington GM Adam Peters was with the 49ers when they sent all sorts of errant signals to the national media regarding which QB they would pick.

I personally think that Washington will take UNC’s Drake Maye, who has been the second highest rated quarterback in this class for over a year now. People like to think that Washington’s moves signal that they’re taking Daniels, as they hired notable Air Raid OC Kliff Kingsbury and signed mobile strong-arm quarterback Marcus Mariota. While Daniels fits well with both of their preferred playstyles, so does Maye. While early-career Mariota played like Daniels, current-day Mariota plays more like Drake Maye. Drake Maye even has experience in the Air Raid itself, having played in the system throughout college.

Another reason why I’m not buying the Daniels hype is the signals that we’re getting from other teams. Most of the sources on Daniels at 2 have been from other teams and agents. If the sources came from Washington, betting markets would treat Daniels as having a 99% chance to be the second pick, rather than a percentage hovering around the eighties. Teams like the Vikings and Giants haven’t quite hidden their high opinion of Drake Maye; Minnesota in particular hired his high school QB coach to the same role for the Vikings. Although I wouldn’t be surprised to see Daniels be the pick, I still think it’s gonna be Drake Maye.

Credit: Getty Images

Does New England stick and pick a QB at 3?

The Patriots are fully resetting. They have a new GM (who doesn’t have the official title), new coach, and with that comes levels of unfamiliarity with even your own scouting processes that will inevitably lead to bumps in the road. If you were to ask me right now what the chances of three separate results for the New England, here’s what I’d say:

70% chance they stay at 3 and take a quarterback.

29% chance they trade back.

1% chance they stay and take a receiver.

The case for taking a QB is simple: quarterbacks are hard to acquire and if you think you can get the face of your franchise, you have to do it. The question then boils down to whether or not the Patriots can trust their infrastructure and scouting abilities to get that decision right. Whoever plays quarterback for New England next season will be doing so with such a poor supporting cast that most quarterbacks typically don’t recover from, so the Patriots have to consider if it’s in their best interest to ruin the confidence of a young passer in what looks like it will be a poor 2024 season.

The case for a trade back is a little bit more complicated. If the Patriots don’t think that they can pick a guy who can become the franchise quarterback, they are probably best suited trading back with one of many QB-needy teams and accumulating assets for a slower rebuild. The truth is that this Patriots team is still years away from being a serious contender, and one quarterback won’t rectify their struggles along the entire offense.

While a trade down does mean that fans won’t have much to look forward to this season, it may be in their best interest long term. Just look at what Houston did, nobody cares that Davis Mills started 26 games for the Texans now that they took off with CJ Stroud after a slow few years following the Deshaun Watson trade. There’s a lot to consider with New England at 3. I personally would need a lot more draft capital to move down with Maye on the board than Daniels, but evaluating quarterbacks is a crapshoot anyways. Finally, the Robert Kraft factor always exists, as he might demand a quarterback without any logic or reasoning behind the decision.

Credit: Getty Images

Who makes the move up for a QB?

I’m more than 90% confident that there will be a trade involving a team moving up into the top 10 picks to select a quarterback. My reasoning for this has to do with the teams at 11, 12, and 13. The Vikings, who pick 11th, haven’t even tried to hide their intentions. In March, they traded future capital with the Texans for pick number 23 in this year’s draft, a move that I think had to be made under a tentative agreement that their trade partner would rather pick 23 than the pair of second round picks they used to get it. They’ve followed up on their actions with words, as Vikings GM Kwesi Adofo-Mensah very publicly described their approach to evaluating rookie quarterbacks in an April 11th press conference. They’ve been linked to Michigan’s JJ McCarthy, which would be a fascinating pairing of Brock Purdy-like traits with a near-ideal supporting cast for a rookie.

Although the Vikings are certainly the favorite to move up, don’t count out Denver or Las Vegas in what could become a bidding war. The Broncos pick 12th, and they’re in a rough spot. They don’t have a second round pick to move up with, and they have at most one true building block of the franchise (Pat Surtain II). This roster, lacking cheap young talent, should go for a longer rebuild rather than push a nonexistent winning window. However, under Denver’s current regime, I’d be surprised if they didn’t at least make an effort to move up. Their coach, (and de-facto GM) Sean Payton, is known for his time with the Saints, who famously never traded back and always used draft capital aggressively in trading up. Their ownership may also want a player who the fans can enjoy rooting for, as they probably want another player who can generate excitement who doesn't play cornerback.

While the Vikings and Broncos have been hot topics regarding an aggressive trade, the Raiders haven’t been. I’d argue that the Raiders make more sense to move up, even if GM Tom Telesco’s draft history suggests that he may not prefer that route. The Raiders have a stronger roster than Denver does, and star WR Davante Adams is on the wrong side of 30. I don’t think they’d outbid Minnesota for Maye or McCarthy, but Jayden Daniels may intrigue them. Daniels has connections to the Raiders coach Antonio Pierce, who recruited him out of high school, and Daniels has spoken very highly of Pierce.

Credit: Getty Images

Do the Falcons trade back from pick 8?

The Falcons offense is ready to go with newly acquired QB Kirk Cousins, but what about the defense? Atlanta hasn’t had a good edge rusher for about a decade, so edge seems like the obvious choice. However, if Atlanta thinks that the pass rusher they want can fall a little bit, they may trade out of the pick. Chicago sits right behind them at pick 9, and they will probably take the third of three blue-chip receiver prospects if available (which will probably be Washington's Rome Odunze). So, there could be a bidding war for the 8th pick. The Jets could move up, Denver could, Indianapolis could, Jacksonville could, or Atlanta could just pick the receiver themselves. The first seven picks of this draft will likely be some order of four quarterbacks, two receivers, and an offensive lineman, so the draft becomes even more unpredictable starting with the Falcons at 8 overall.

Credit: Jesse Beals/Icon Sportswire

When does the run on Offensive Tackles begin?

This draft class is one of the best offensive line classes we’ve seen in a while. Not only could there be upwards of 7 offensive linemen in round 1, betting markets expect it. There is a ton of supply in round 1, and tons of teams want to shore up their tackle spots.

It seems inevitable that there is a run on tackles, but where does it start? The Jets could pick one, the Chargers could if they trade down, the Broncos could, the Raiders could, the Saints could, even the Seahawks could. Realistically, anyone but the Vikings (11, 23), Colts (15), and Rams (19) from picks 10 to 26 could take an offensive lineman. So, while it’s possible that there aren’t even eight offensive linemen taken in round 1, it's also possible that there are at least seven gone before Dallas picks at number 24. With a draft board headlined with offensive talent, teams will look to address pass protection early and often in this year’s draft.

Credit: Getty Images

Where is Michael Penix Jr. taken?

Reports on where Washington QB Michael Penix will be taken are very uncertain. Some seem certain that he won’t fall beyond the Raiders pick at 13, while some think he will fall outside of the first round entirely. I agree more with the latter take, as I think the hype with Penix has gone too far. Teams don’t magically raise up a player by a whole round in mid-April, and that’s where the perception on Penix has gone. Still, he could be a candidate to be taken at the end of round 1, even if it’s a team like the Raiders trading back up into the first.

Other sports do this better. The MLB rewards position players for being both the best fielders and hitters at their position by giving out Gold Glove and Silver Slugger awards, while still having larger catch-all awards like MVP and Rookie of the Year. College Football does the same in a sport where player evaluation is far more nuanced, and they honor past stars while doing so. The NBA’s is more basic, but they at least have the Most Improved Player award rather than the NFL’s hilarious Comeback Player of the Year award. Why should people decide whether or not the CPOY is Joe Flacco, who came back from his couch to lead the Browns to the playoffs, or Damar Hamlin, who came back from his heart stopping on a football field but played minimal snaps in 2023. That award specifically pisses me off.

So, what have awards become?

MVP: The best quarterback on one of the 5 best teams.

OPOY: The offensive skill position player with some of the most yards from scrimmage.

DPOY: The most dominant pass rusher.

OROY: The first round rookie who had a lot of yards.

DROY: The first round rookie who got to 7 sacks.

CPOY: A good player who wasn’t good the previous year.

COTY (Coach of the Year): The coach that exceeded expectations and surprisingly made the playoffs.

EOTY (Executive of the Year): The GM who killed the draft and whose team exceeded expectations.

ACOY (Assistant Coach of the Year): The coordinator who’s the next big thing in head coach searches.

See how this isn’t the most logical way to do things? Shouldn’t MVP be the most valuable player? Defensive player of the year being the best defender? I have qualms with every award (except for the Walter Payton Man of the Year which rewards character and philanthropy). So, I’m making my own.

Changing the Current Awards

The MVP, in my opinion, isn’t evaluating the most valuable player. I do think the deserving winner, Lamar Jackson, will win this year. However, I’d like to rework the MVP award to reward the player who provided the most value above replacement/average to the team. This will almost certainly be a quarterback, which is fine!

For the rest, OROY and DROY are fine, I just wish the voters didn’t bake in draft position into the award selection/voting. DPOY should probably be less biased towards pass rushers, but they often have the most noticeable impact so I get it.

I’d like for COTY to be repurposed to being “the coach who exceeded expectations and circumstances in the most meaningful ways.” Right now, Texans coach Demeco Ryans may win the award, but Ravens coach John Harbaugh is way out of the race. Why? I think that changing the organizational and coaching structure to go from a 10-win team to the best one in the league versus taking a 3-win team to 10 wins isn’t as big of a difference as we think. Last year, Kyle Shanahan took the last pick and transformed him into the quarterback of the most lethal offense in football. He lost the award to Brian Daboll, who made a bad team just okay. Impressive, but simply not the best coaching performance this year.

Lastly, I’d like to eliminate the Comeback Player of the Year award. It’s so stupid, and I explained why above. Here are what I would pick for these awards under my criteria.

MVP: Lamar Jackson (BAL)

OPOY: Tyreek Hill (MIA)

DPOY: Myles Garrett (CLE)

OROY: CJ Stroud (HOU)

DROY: Joey Porter Jr (PIT)

COTY: Sean McVay (LAR)

EOTY: Brian Gutekunst (GB)

ACOY: Jim Schwartz (CLE)

With that said, here’s what I’d want to add to the NFL awards show.

The “it was fun while it lasted” award: Tommy DeVito

I thought of this article idea because of Josh Dobbs, because the truth is that he should win the award. The rocket scientist turned quarterback, dubbed “The Passtronaut,” exploded onto the scene when he won a game where he was so new to his team that he had to learn his center’s timing on the sideline while his defense was on the field. In Atlanta, his coach was explaining how the plays worked as he called them!

With that said, Dobbs was just one of three quarterbacks to go from the bench to national stardom in such a short period of time. After Deshaun Watson had a season-ending shoulder injury, the Browns signed Joe Flacco off the street. At the ripe age of 38, Flacco’s arm still looked like he was 28, and he was slinging the football around the field. From weeks 13 to 17, Flacco led the league in passing yards and touchdowns, and was hilariously one of the three most dominant quarterbacks in this stretch. He crumbled in the postseason, however, throwing several interceptions en route to a playoff loss.

If it’s New York bias to say that the winner of this award is Tommy DeVito, then I’m biased. DeVito’s play was honestly less impressive than that of the other two, given his top performances were against horrible defenses like the Packers and Commanders. The difference between DeVito and the other two is the storyline generated by the QB’s rise to fame. Tommy DeVito quickly became a national star, using a common Italian gesture as a celebration and filming italian food rankings for the

Honorable mentions: Josh Dobbs, Joe Flacco

Bit of the year: DK Metcalf learning sign language.

The Seahawks passing offense didn’t catch many headlines, in large part due to the fact that it was basically what everyone expected it to be. However, when top WR DK Metcalf would score a touchdown, he’d have a more creative way of taunting. Rather than being penalized for trash talk verbally, he learned sign language to trash talk. This is next-level trash talk, and I support it wholeheartedly.

Waiver Wire pickup of the year: Joe Flacco

I feel like this one’s obvious, right? Flacco was signed in December after Deshaun Watson had a season-ending injury, and he led the Browns to a magical run to the playoffs. You typically don’t get a month of elite QB play from free agency that late into the season.

Aged like fine wine award: The Aaron Rodgers trade (by the Packers)

The Packers make finding a quarterback look so easy. They had Hall of Fame QB Brett Favre for over a decade, drafted Aaron Rodgers to replace him, and then had one of the league’s young stars waiting to replace him. Green Bay hasn’t had bad quarterback play for much longer than my lifetime. Meanwhile, the Jets fell apart. Rodgers got hurt after four snaps, and he discouraged the Jets from getting a viable backup QB so he could try to come back from an achilles tear. This trade makes the Packers look like geniuses while the Jets like fools, and Aaron Rodgers isn’t getting any younger.

Game of the year: Bucs @ Texans

Buccaneers at Texans was such a fun football game. Who would’ve predicted Baker Mayfield and CJ Stroud going blow for blow at the end of the game. The early November game ended as a 39-37 shootout where the Texans won mainly because they had the ball last. What makes this more fun than a regular shootout was Texans RB Dare Ogunbowale. After Houston’s kicker got hurt, Ogunbowale manned kick-offs and Field Goal duty, and shockingly didn’t make a single mistake in replacement of Ka’imi Fairbairn.

Honorable mentions: Seahawks @ Cowboys, Bills @ Jets.

Play of the year: Tylan Wallace’s game winning punt return.

It sucks that the top two candidates for this award were nullified by poor and/or inconsistent officiating, so I had to go to a third candidate. The powerhouse Ravens hosted a frisky Rams team in week 14, who seemed to have finally figured out how to beat Baltimore’s defense. The Rams took the game to overtime, but had to punt it to backup returner Tylan Wallace. In one of his first NFL punt returns, he took a punt 75+ yards to win the game with a walk-off touchdown.

Honorable mentions: Travis Kelce to Kadarius Toney lateral, Taylor Decker 2pt conversion.

ROI (return on investment) Award: Brock Purdy

Brock Purdy shouldn’t win MVP. He’s had to do a lot less than everyone else in the race, and overall he hasn’t shown the same level of excellence like Lamar Jackson or Josh Allen have. With that said, from a pure surplus value standpoint, the last pick in the 2022 draft playing like a top-half quarterback undoubtedly provides the most bang for your buck to any team. Purdy made less than a million dollars this year, and is one of the lowest cap hits on his team. Needless to say, Brock Purdy has been a great value pick for the 49ers and deserves this award.

Honorable mention: Puka Nacua

Positional Awards

I think what college football does best is awarding the best players by position. They named awards after legends of their time, and rewarded more collegiate athletes for incredible seasons.

Jerry Rice award: Tyreek Hill (most outstanding Wide Receiver)

Tyreek Hill dominated the league this year, and was nearly on pace for 2000 yards for the majority of the season. This is a no-brainer, although Ceedee Lamb gave him a run for his money at the end of the season.

Honorable mentions: Ceedee Lamb, Puka Nacua

Emmitt Smith award: Christian McCaffrey (most outstanding Running Back)

McCaffrey was without a doubt the best running back this season. He scored a touchdown in 17 straight games from 2022 to 2023, tying a record. He and Tyreek Hill should get awards this season, it’s a shame only one of them got one.

Dante Scarnecchia award: Philadelphia Eagles (most outstanding Offensive Line)

This is an award I’d like to see reward the best offensive line unit as a whole. The Eagles, to nobody’s surprise, dominated in the trenches all year long. Led by Jason Kelce, their line dominated so much that the league might ban their best play, as Jeff Stoutland’s unit continues to run over the league.

Lawrence Taylor Award: Myles Garrett (most outstanding Pass Rusher)

The first criticism of Myles Garrett is his low sack number compared to his AFC North counterpart TJ Watt. I’d like to put in a formal request to stop comparing the two just had. Myles Garrett had double the pass rush win rate AND double team percentage compared to TJ Watt. His assignments were way tougher, yet the same game-wrecking presence was still there. Garrett may not have the most sacks, but his gravity as a pass rusher showed the most dominance as his team’s defense was undeniably top 3 in the league.

Honorable mentions: Micah Parsons, TJ Watt

Ray Lewis award: Fred Warner (most outstanding Linebacker)

Not too surprising to see the best LB in the league dominate for another season. Warner’s ability to read out play-action and get to the right spot on defense is second to none, and nobody else even comes close. He allows the 49ers to play so freely up with their defensive line because he can take on so much responsibility, and he has no holes in his game.

Honorable mention: Roquan Smith

Rod Woodson award: Kyle Hamilton (most outstanding Defensive Back)

Baltimore’s second-year safety dominated on a play-by-play basis in 2023. He made key contributions in blitzing, tackling, and in coverage, where he combined with the Ravens other safety, Geno Stone, for 11 interceptions. He’s one of the most unique defenders in the league and deserves this award.

Devin Hester award: Brandon Aubrey (most impactful Special Teams player)

Special teamers deserve awards too. Cowboys rookie kicker Brandon Aubrey deserves some recognition for a perfect kicking season up to week 18, where his streak ended due to a blocked kick. No need for any in-depth analysis into 2023’s top kicker and special teamer.

Honorable mention: AJ Cole

Typically, 5 to 7 coaches get fired each season. This could include mid-season firings, which are becoming more and more common throughout recent years. The truth is, NFL head coaches don’t get a lot of patience from their bosses, and often are the first to blame when a team struggles. This season, we’ve seen 8 openings. This atypical number, coupled with the college national champion looking like he’s gonna go back to the NFL, creates a super chaotic coaching carousel. So, who’s in play for these 8 jobs? I've set up a few categories to contextualize this wild coaching carousel.

Massively overqualified for this search

Mike Vrabel - Former Titans Head Coach

Mike Vrabel won the Coach of the Year award following an impressive 2021 season where his Titans were the AFC’s first seed. Since then, he won a power struggle over GM Jon Robinson, got him fired, but the team fell from the division’s best to its worst. Vrabel is still one of the best motivators and culture builders around the league, Tennessee just (erroneously) thought that the power dynamic wasn’t right for them. He’s one of the ten best coaches in the sport and should get opportunities this winter.

Jim Harbaugh - Michigan Wolverines Head Coach

Harbaugh is a… fascinating personality for sure. He’s a college coach for a reason: he wants to have full control over his football team, even though as a former quarterback himself, his area of expertise is on the offensive side of the football. Harbaugh got close to taking an NFL job last year, his first since being the 49ers coach during the Colin Kaepernick run 10 years ago, but ultimately stayed at Michigan for what ended up being his best season. Harbaugh has shown more interest than ever in returning to the NFL, and is expected to have a number of suitors.

Bill Belichick - Former Patriots Head Coach

If the greatest head coach of all time can’t make it work with a new quarterback, then he might be traded to a new team. Unlike other coaching candidates, he should get to choose his team at the end of his career and the team getting him should be willing to give up a draft pick for his defensive mind.

The main prize on each side of the ball

Ben Johnson - Lions Offensive Coordinator

In his two seasons as Detroit’s OC, Ben Johnson has been one of the most creative and successful offensive coordinators in football. Johnson has made it work with a smart and polished but limited and immobile quarterback, and his creativity has gotten the most out of a very young skill position group. He didn’t want Carolina’s job last season, he instead doubled down on the Lions and it paid off. Detroit is the 7th best offense by EPA/play for the past two seasons, and they’re doing so with some very creative play designs. Johnson, realistically, should have multiple teams to pick from as he decides where he coaches next.

Mike MacDonald - Ravens Defensive Coordinator

Ben Johnson, among other offensive minds such as Mike McDaniel and Kyle Shanahan, have dominated the past two seasons of football given their unique pathways to success with unique but limited quarterbacks. Every time the next hot thing faces Mike MacDonald’s Ravens, they get shut down. Remember when the Lions lost by 30+ points in Baltimore? Or when the Ravens single-handedly destroyed Brock Purdy’s MVP case on Christmas? Or how he’s been the one guy to give Joe Burrow fits consistently as he’s gotten his way against the rest of the AFC? These performances have been regular for MacDonald, and the way he does it makes it feel even more impressive. His modern defense filled with disguised coverages has given other teams blueprints to solve top offenses, so any team that wants this defensive guru should probably have to fight with other teams for him.

Is this their year?

Raheem Morris - Rams Defensive Coordinator

Morris, quite surprisingly, is one of my favorite candidates of the 2024 cycle. His recent work has been in LA, where he won a Super Bowl in 2021 and has consistently elevated sub-par talent to good performances. While his Rams stint is impressive, I think he’s an even better football mind than that shows. He got his first head coaching gig with the Buccaneers in 2009, where he never stood a fighting chance on a disintegrating team. Since then, he’s had his hands on both sides of the ball working with the likes of Kyle Shanahan and Sean McVay. Morris provides insight and leadership on both sides of the ball, and he’s gotten close to landing a few jobs recently. With nudges from esteemed head coach Sean McVay and GM Les Snead from the Rams, this may be the year.

Brian Flores - Vikings Defensive Coordinator

Flores got in kahoots with the league after getting fired from the Dolphins after a successful 3-year stint from 2019 to 2021 where he had a winning record despite weak rosters and a lot of unwanted drama. He was the rare former Patriots coordinator to successfully implement their aggressive defense. He should get another chance, but his relationships with certain owners as well as his poor history of hiring Offensive Coordinators may keep him in Minnesota despite a truly astonishing defensive turnaround.

Dan Quinn - Cowboys Defensive Coordinator

Quinn was the coach of the Falcons memorable 28-3 collapse, but we shouldn’t let that define his status in the NFL. Coming from Pete Carroll’s elite Seahawks teams, his defenses got a bit stale and outdated in Atlanta as the league figured out how to beat it, but he’s had an impressive decade in the NFL. His Falcons tenure was good for the most part, until it fell apart at the end. He then took the Cowboys DC job, and turned around that unit until the very end when they fell to the Packers in the Wild Card round. Quinn is a great leader and has a natural eye for identifying assistant coaches, and he’s a good (but not amazing) candidate for a head coaching gig.

The young, hot-shot offensive minds

Bobby Slowik - Houston Texans Offensive Coordinator

The Texans exploded onto the scene, in large part due to an offense drastically exceeding expectations. Slowik has done a great job with likely rookie of the year CJ Stroud, and might’ve earned himself a job by tearing apart Cleveland’s #1 ranked defense after a few underwhelming games prior. With that said, his over-reliance on a very bad running game may keep him from landing a job this cycle, and maybe that’ll only make him better.

Frank Smith - Miami Dolphins Offensive Coordinator

Smith is an under-the-radar candidate, but a strong one. He’s a non-playcalling OC, which doesn't often yield head coaching jobs, but he was behind the most innovative and high-flying offenses in the NFL. If he interviews well, he could land a seat in this game of musical chairs.

Dave Canales - Tampa Bay Buccaneers Offensive Coordinator

Talk about a quick rise, Canales was unknown amongst NFL fandom 12 months ago, and even as recently as this summer. However, the Bucs revived Baker Mayfield’s wacky career en route to a shocking division title, in large part due to the offense that people expected to be horrible being, well, pretty good! This comes one season after Seahawks QB Geno Smith revived his career with Canales as the QB coach. I really like some of the stuff Canales has done in Tampa, and his ability to elevate an undersized and limited quarterback may appeal to owners and GMs around the league.

The defense & culture guys

Aaron Glenn - Detroit Lions Defensive Coordinator

Any fanbase bringing in Aaron Glenn may be underwhelmed by the Lions middling defense. However, he’s being hired for his leadership and connections more than schemes. He’s beloved by his players, ranking as the NFLPA’s most vouched for Defensive Coordinator in the league, and while his defenses aren’t perfect, his leadership may land him a job in the same way that Jonathan Gannon did.

Steve Wilks - San Francisco 49ers Defensive Coordinator

Wilks was in a similar boat to Pierce in 2022, as an interim coach for the Carolina Panthers. He didn’t get Carolina’s 2023 job, but he’s done a good job with the 49ers defense. He’s a good leader and defensive mind, and that could land him a job.

Ejiro Evero - Carolina Panthers Defensive Coordinator

Evero was a much hotter candidate last year, but still will get some interviews. He’s led good defenses in Denver and Carolina in each of the past two seasons, despite middling personnel and offenses that consistently put his unit in a bad spot. Both of his head coaches were fired mid-season, so he may have to wait for one stable organization to show his full potential.

My Predictions:

Atlanta Falcons: Bill Belichick

Washington Commanders: Ben Johnson

Carolina Panthers: Frank Smith

Seattle Seahawks: Dan Quinn

Los Angeles Chargers: Jim Harbaugh

Tennessee Titans: Aaron Glenn (predicted before the Brian Callahan hiring)

Las Vegas Raiders: Antonio Pierce (predicted before the official hiring)

The Patriots hired Jerod Mayo before I wrote this part.

This leaves Macdonald and Vrabel, who are among my top coaching candidates, out of the picture. It’s a crowded class, and I'm excited to see how it plays out.

The Dodgers spent all of this money on two Japanese phenoms, Shohei Ohtani and Yoshinobu Yamamoto. The former being from the crosstown rival Angels, and the latter being a 25 year-old Japanese pitcher who has put up Pedro Martinez-type numbers in Japan.

Let’s start with Yamamoto. He signed a 12 year, $325 million contract from the Dodgers to team up with Ohtani. He broke the record for largest contract signed by a pitcher (not named Ohtani) even though he hadn’t thrown a single pitch in the majors. Yamamoto is young (25), so he may be a good bet for a longer contract, but his 5’10 frame brings in questions of longevity. Nonetheless, the Dodgers signed one of the hottest arms on the market, which goes a long way to fixing their pitching staff.

Ohtani is the best baseball player in the world, and it isn’t very close. The two-time AL MVP has a case for being the best hitter and pitcher individually, but when combined, nobody in the sport is as valuable as he is. Ohtani broke the baseball world by signing a 10 year, 700 million contract, which on paper is a 60% increase from Max Scherzer’s near 44 million annual contract.

What’s even crazier than the monumental sum itself is the way it’s distributed. On Monday, the Dodgers released that they would set aside 680 million of the 700 million to be paid from 2034 to 2043, so he’ll only make 2 million annually for the next ten years. An adjustment this big is unprecedented, and could ruin the integrity contract negotiations for the near future.

How is this allowed?

Teams have always been able to delay and spread out contract value, but most teams have used this feature minimally. The famous example is about Bobby Bonilla, who has and will receive $1.193M each year from 2011 to 2035. The one case we saw with significant salary was that of Max Scherzer’s 2015 Washington Nationals contract, where the team deferred 105 of his 210 million dollar deal, a clear record at the time.

The MLBPA allows this because typically, the players end up getting the money with interest anyways, while the teams get to decide when they want to pay these figures in order to maximize competitiveness and the on-field product. However, the first point is what makes Shohei’s situation so unique: none of Shohei Ohtani’s contract will receive interest.

Specifics of Shohei’s Contract

Accounting for projected salary cap inflation, Shohei’s contract only counts against the Dodgers luxury tax threshold as 46 million annually. So, he’s set the annual record, but I’d argue he took a discount. Ohtani is a top pitcher and hitter, and although he’ll miss the 2024 pitching season due to getting Tommy John surgery, the combination of his hitting and pitching skills usually would draw a larger sum than 46 million. So, the 2 million on the Dodgers books basically allowed them to get Shohei and Yamamoto for the price of one.

What’s next?

The baseball world, understandably, now knows that the Dodgers are a powerhouse. They’ll be everyone’s World Series pick, probably including mine, and for good reason. Many fan bases are asking themselves why their teams haven’t deferred 97% of a contract like the Dodgers did, and why it’s even allowed. My opinion is that while teams will probably begin to defer certain parts of contracts to dodge certain cap thresholds, I doubt it will ever get to 97% of a contract. I think this contract is an outlier, but teams will start to push more and more money into the future.

1. Carolina Panthers (via CHI) - Bryce Young, QB, Alabama

Every betting market indicates that the Panthers will take Bryce Young, a quick turnaround after everyone suspected they would take Ohio State’s CJ Stroud when they first traded up. I think Young is the right pick here, but it’s a fascinating one, as he is pretty much the smallest quarterback ever, playing at about 5’10 and 200 lbs if we’re being generous. Young is a stunning fit for Panthers head coach Frank Reich, who has exclusively worked with quarterbacks above 6’3, meaning that a lot of what he is familiar with running on offense may not work. Despite his height, Young is tremendous at creating plays when under pressure and has a Heisman trophy under his belt. He is the best quarterback in this class.

Other potential picks: CJ Stroud, Will Levis Update: While I was editing this piece, DraftKings took down the odds for the first 3 picks, but I don’t know what I can even do at this point. The first two picks could easily be flipped. Anything could happen. The 2023 draft is one of pure chaos.

2. Houston Texans - Will Levis, QB, Kentucky

I’m pretty sure there’s a different betting favorite for who will be the number 2 pick every week, but I’ve stood by two things. 1: The Texans don’t want to tank for another year, and 2: The NFL likes Will Levis more than we think. Levis is the personality that owners and GMs will gravitate towards most, being tough enough to play through any injury, and always the hardest worker in a building. Coaches, on the other hand, may have some reservations. Levis has good physical traits but they don’t compare to those of another QB in this class, and he tries to play hero-ball, making some really stupid plays in the process. He’s an even tougher evaluation because his 2021 tape was incredible, but his offense fell apart in 2022 and he had to play through injury, meaning he ended his collegiate career with a dud season. Guys like Levis who know NFL schemes, work hard, and motivate a locker room to play for him get rewarded, and amidst all of the question marks about this quarterback class, Levis is rising because teams feel like he is the most stable option. Houston could go with a defender here, but if they don’t Levis feels like he’s the most viable option for the Texans here at pick 2.

Other potential picks: CJ Stroud, Tyree Wilson, Will Anderson

3. Arizona Cardinals - Tyree Wilson, EDGE, Texas Tech

Arizona probably is trying to trade out of this pick to get more draft capitol, which would absolutely be the right move, but I’m not predicting any trades in this article, so I have Arizona going with the player who I think will be the first defender off the board: Tyree Wilson. While I personally believe that Wilson is nowhere near polished enough to be the third overall pick, he does have tremendous potential and length that could allow him to develop into a star pass rusher. Arizona’s roster is beyond horrible, so they seem destined for their choice of any of next years’ hyped up QB class, so they really don’t need any production from Wilson as a rookie. The NFL loves Wilson’s potential, and I think that the Cardinals, along with many other teams, would take Wilson over any other defender in this draft.

Other potential picks: Trade out, Will Anderson

4. Indianapolis Colts - Anthony Richardson, QB, Florida

Colts GM Chris Ballard is obsessed with a prospect’s traits, always preaching that his scouts should “look for the good, not for the bad.” Well, the “good” in Richardson is about as good as you’ll get. Richardson is the best athlete we’ve ever seen at QB, my source being Kent Lee Platte’s RAS (Relative Athletic Scores) and my own eyes which watched him work out at the combine. Richardson has a crazy strong arm, superb mobility, and therefore the potential to be a true superstar quarterback, something that the Colts need if they want to seriously compete in the AFC. If Richardson had no deficiencies in his game, he’d be the first pick, but there are areas for concern. His main flaw is his accuracy, as he still doesn’t know how to put touch on a ball and has messy footwork. Surprisingly, his mental processing is better than many people, including myself, would expect, so I don’t think that Richardson’s problems are as limiting as those of past quarterbacks labeled “projects.” Both Indy’s coach and GM believe in the development of players like Richardson, so I think they’d take him if he falls to pick 4.

Other potential picks: CJ Stroud, Will Levis

5. Seattle Seahawks (via DEN) - Will Anderson, EDGE, Alabama

I think Seattle would also prefer Tyree Wilson to Anderson, but they need an edge rusher and Anderson is arguably the best player in the whole draft. Anderson is an explosive and technically sound player from Alabama who also is considered undersized, which may remind you of Bryce Young. Seattle has some solid rushers, but nobody near the level of Anderson, and a defensive front featuring Anderson, Uchenna Nwosu, Dre’Mont Jones, and Shelby Harris would be very hard to block.

Other potential picks: Tyree Wilson, Anthony Richardson, Jalen Carter

6. Detroit Lions (via LAR) - Devon Witherspoon, CB, Illinois

Detroit could take a quarterback here, but I don’t think they’d want Stroud given how similar he is to the guy they already have, Jared Goff. Levis is an intriguing option, but I’m not sure that their GM Brad Holmes would want to risk his job for him, and he may not be available for the Lions. Witherspoon has been matched to Detroit countless times in the past month, and the circumstances in Detroit make him a nice fit to play with intensity and fit into an ascending defense.

Other potential picks: Tyree Wilson, Anthony Richardson

7. Las Vegas Raiders - CJ Stroud, QB, Ohio State

It’s an open secret that the Raiders have liked Stroud for a while, and they may move up to get him. Stroud has a high floor because his arm is super talented and aside from his athletic limitations, which are overblown, he has no major deficiencies in his game. Stroud is getting some crazy rumors regarding his character and mental processing thrown around, which indicates that either the NFL is lower on him than we think or the Raiders really want him to fall to 7. Either way, I think that other teams never liked him too much and if he falls out of the top 2, the Raiders will try their hardest to grab their guy.

Other potential picks: Christian Gonzalez, Will Levis, trade up

8. Atlanta Falcons - Bijan Robinson, RB, Texas

This would be a very in-character pick for Atlanta and coach Arthur Smith, who seems to want a similar structure to what he had in Tennessee with Derrick Henry. This year’s draft class is seen as weak, and while picking a running back is often looked down upon in the top ten, Bijan has no holes in his game. Robinson is basically a perfect prospect for his position, but many people don’t know how far he’ll slide because of his position and how easy it has been proven to be to find quality running backs in later rounds. I don’t think he falls as far as analytics people would want, because he’s one of the best football players in the draft.

Other potential picks: Christian Gonzalez, CJ Stroud

9. Chicago Bears (via CAR) - Jalen Carter, DL, Georgia

I nearly had Chicago picking more for need and grabbing an offensive lineman, but I don’t think they can justifiably pass on the best football player in this draft. Carter was rumored to be the Bears’ choice when they had the first overall pick, but since then the Bears moved to a lower draft slot and Carter has gotten himself into some legal trouble, raising questions about his character and commitment to football and lowering his draft stock. In the NFL, some teams value off-field concerns a lot more than others, but it’s just so hard to pass on a player who is absolutely dominant in whatever role he plays on the interior defensive line, and I anticipate the Bears take the best player on the board when they have so many spots to fill on their roster.

Other potential picks: Peter Skoronski, Paris Johnson Jr.

10. Philadelphia Eagles (via NO) - Nolan Smith, EDGE, Georgia

I think Philadelphia is the lowest Carter will fall, but the highest that his teammate Nolan Smith would go. Philly is pretty set at just about every position on their roster, and they have an extended history of prioritizing linemen in the draft, and Smith provides them with immediate energy to their defense. Their pass rushers are aging, and Smith allows the NFC champion Eagles to become even harder to gameplan for by adding a crazy speed threat off the edge. This is a luxury pick, but Philly will try their best to solve a future problem, and Smith does that while providing immediate juice to their already deadly pass rush.

Other potential picks: Jalen Carter, Peter Skoronski, Paris Johnson Jr.

11. Tennessee Titans - Peter Skoronski, OL, Northwestern

Tennessee’s offensive line is just so bad. They signed some solid players in the offseason, but whoever plays QB for them is going to get killed. Skoronski has played tremendously as a tackle for Northwestern, but his length may make NFL coaches inclined to move him to guard, where he would be a stud. Tennessee has other players like Skoronski who have positional flexibility on the offensive line, and the Titans will love his intensity and physicality no matter where he plays. Skoronski may be the best player left on the board, and the Titans badly need a player like him. They are a candidate for a QB this draft, but in this scenario none of the top four are available to them.

Other potential picks: Will Levis, Anthony Richardson (trade up), Paris Johnson Jr.

12. Houston Texans (via CLE) - Christian Gonzalez, CB, Oregon

Gonzalez is the best player available and probably a top ten talent in this class. His length and technique at the cornerback position are sound, and he’ll be able to stick in the NFL from day 1. Houston picked CB Derek Stingley Jr. third last year, but that shouldn’t stop them from selecting Gonzalez to assemble one of the best young cornerback duos in the league. Houston could opt to not take a quarterback at pick 2 and wait until 12 to snag their guy, but in this scenario they already have Levis, and want to give Demeco Ryans a new tool for his defense.

Other potential picks: Will Levis, Nolan Smith, Lukas Van Ness

13. Green Bay Packers - Lukas Van Ness, EDGE, Iowa

Lukas Van Ness is a physically imposing player with limited reps due to his status as a rotational pass rusher at Iowa, but checks every box that the NFL has when determining who is a good player. His frame is incredible, and Green Bay has a history of prioritizing size and potential when making selections in the first round. His biggest strength may be his versatility, which will allow him to play more often and such versatility has appealed to Green Bay before when taking defensive line prospects. The Packers seem allergic to helping out their quarterback, and would drool over the potential to pick another defensive player in the first round.

Other potential picks: Paris Johnson Jr., Jaxon Smith-Njigba, Michael Mayer

14. New England Patriots - Zay Flowers, WR, Boston College

This is the earliest Zay could go, but he deserves it. Flowers has top-tier speed and quickness while standing only at 5’9, but unlike other receivers in this class, his height doesn’t cause many problems at all. He is able to maintain his superb agility and speed even when putting on more weight, and doesn’t lack the physicality needed to succeed at the NFL level. The Patriots have been linked to him a lot, as he showed explosiveness just down the road from Foxborough in Boston, and they need his energy to evolve their receiver room from sufficient to scary.

Other potential picks: OL, QB (trade up), CB

15. New York Jets - Paris Johnson Jr., OL, Ohio State

Paris Johnson shouldn’t and probably won’t fall this far, but he would be an A+ pick for the Jets and recently acquired QB Aaron Rodgers. The Jets’ offensive line is highly suspect at the moment, and grabbing Johnson somewhat reminds me of the Buccaneers taking Tristan Wirfs to get the last piece along with Tom Brady for a Super Bowl run, as Johnson’s athleticism and positional flexibility makes him a high-floor pick who maintains a high ceiling.

They will take an offensive lineman here, other linemen are their potential other picks.

16. Washington Commanders - Deonte Banks, CB, Maryland

I really like Banks, even though like the Zay Flowers pick, he likely won’t be the expected pick even at his own position. Banks has an incredible athletic ceiling and doesn’t play too far from the Commanders facilities, and fills an important positional need. The Commanders don’t have an owner, so they can really do whatever they want, and that may mean making a bolder pick that they like, and they have a history of picking players that need more development on defense.

Other potential picks: Darnell Wright, Myles Murphy, Nolan Smith, trade down

17. Pittsburgh Steelers - Darnell Wright, OT, Tennessee

This is the lowest that Darnell Wright will fall. He may not be a flashy name coming from Tennessee, but Wright is a mauling blocker, a determined worker, and a great athlete. NFL teams love that, and Wright will rightfully go in the first round because of that. Pittsburgh needs a player like him, having no consistency at offensive tackle in recent years. The biggest flaw in Wright’s game is his highly inconsistent weight, but if any team can trust their culture to get the best out of a player, it’s the Pittsburgh Steelers.

Other potential picks: Broderick Jones, Joey Porter Jr,

18. Detroit Lions - Hendon Hooker, QB, Tennessee

This was the hardest pick of this whole mock draft, but I think the Lions know that they may need to take a quarterback this draft. Hooker can’t start right away because of a torn ACL, and despite being 25 years old, he is clearly a project. Hooker doesn’t move in the pocket, and at Tennessee all he did was throw deep passes, to great success. Hooker is intriguing because people don’t know how far he is from being a starting quarterback, and despite his age and injury, NFL teams are interested. Other potential picks: Jack Campbell, Calijah Kancey, anyone (seriously I don’t know)

19. Tampa Bay Buccaneers - Broderick Jones, OT, Georgia

Broderick Jones is a great athlete with messy technique, making him a pretty raw prospect. Nonetheless, he will go in the first round because he played well in college and doesn’t seem too far from being an effective NFL tackle with the potential to be a stud. Tampa cut ties with longtime inconsistent offensive tackle Donovan Smith, and they need someone to fill his space. Jones fits all of their athletic preferences and will be allowed to play tackle from day 1, and while it may look ugly early in the season, this is Tampa’s best route to a rock-solid OT duo.

Other potential picks: Dalton Kincaid, Michael Mayer, Anton Harrison, QB (trade up)

20. Seattle Seahawks - Jaxon Smith-Njigba, WR, Ohio State

Smith-Njigba probably won’t and shouldn’t fall this far, but he fits Seattle so well. The Seahawks offensive coordinator Shane Waldron comes from the Rams, and I think that JSN’s potential will be fully reached with usage similar to Cooper Kupp, as he thrives from the slot and long speed is the only major flaw in his game. He also isn’t going to be expected to produce immediately in Seattle, as he would be behind two productive but injury prone receivers. Smith-Njigba would be a slam dunk pick at 20, and the Seahawks would be the winners of the draft if they could land two stars in round 1.

Other potential picks: Myles Murphy, trade up/down, O’Cyrus Torrence

The Miami Dolphins would be picking here, but their owner got a bit too silly and decided to tamper and try to get Tom Brady, so we'll just say they tried to turn in Tom Brady on the draft card.

21. Los Angeles Chargers - Myles Murphy, EDGE, Clemson

There’s a solid chance that LA takes a receiver here, and it would make sense, as there’s a solid chance that a team like the Saints trade up and grab Murphy. However, Myles Murphy’s 2021 film makes him a hot commodity in the NFL, showing the ability and toughness necessary to play on every down at the NFL level. The Chargers have good edge rushers, but it’s still one of their biggest needs, as their current room is very injury prone and lacks depth. I think the Chargers are more likely to take an edge rusher than we may think, and if he’s not gone, I don’t think LA passes Murphy up.

Other potential picks: Quentin Johnston, Nolan Smith, Zay Flowers

22. Baltimore Ravens - Joey Porter Jr., CB, Penn State

Porter Jr., the son of former NFL player Joey Porter, would be a super fun fit in Baltimore. Funnily enough, Joey Porter played on the Steelers, so in this mock draft I have his son going to his former team’s rival. The Ravens need cornerbacks, and Porter could be the best defender left in the draft at this point, if he lasts this long without hearing his name. Porter’s biggest strength is his length, as his arms nearly go down to his knees. This length allows Porter to disrupt more passing lanes than one would expect, and allows him to be physical with any receiver in press coverage. Baltimore’s defense highly values players who can do what Porter can, which is why I wouldn’t expect him to fall past 22 if he made it there.

Other potential picks: Zay Flowers, Quentin Johnston, Deonte Banks, Emmanuel Forbes, DJ Turner

23. Minnesota Vikings - DJ Turner, DB, Michigan

I don’t know if anyone expects Turner to go in round 1, but it would make a ton of sense. Turner can immediately slot in on the outside, but defensive coordinators can be creative with him, and Brian Flores desperately needs more tools in the secondary. Turner may be small, but he also would immediately be one of the fastest cornerbacks in the league, making him an appealing option for teams looking for immediate production at the end of the first round. Minnesota has basically nothing at cornerback right now, and they badly need one in a scheme that relies so heavily on them.

Other potential picks: Hendon Hooker, Deonte Banks, Joey Porter Jr., Emmanuel Forbes, Cam Smith

24. Jacksonville Jaguars - Brian Branch, DB, Alabama

Branch makes too much sense for Jacksonville. The Jaguars badly need a slot defender, as they tried to get Darious Williams to fill that role before making the same mistake other teams had done and just sticking him on the outside. Branch also functions as a safety, making him a very versatile player who can fill a lot of roles. He shouldn’t fall this far, but tons of people have made this connection before, and Branch makes the Jaguars a lot better.

Other potential picks: Secondary, D-Line

25. New York Giants - Quentin Johnston, WR, TCU

In February, this seemed like the farthest Johnston could fall. Now, this feels closer to his ceiling. Johnston had a breakout season at TCU, racking up over 1,000 yards en route to a championship loss, marking one of the best seasons in TCU program history. Johnston is a big and speedy receiver who doesn’t play with the physicality that you would want of someone with his frame. The Giants need bigger wide receivers who are comfortable playing on the outside, and Quentin Johnston is a good fit.

Other potential picks: Emmanuel Forbes, Josh Downs, Michael Mayer

26. Dallas Cowboys - Michael Mayer, TE, Notre Dame

This pick makes sense because the Cowboys probably have Mayer as the top player available on their board by a lot. Mayer has been destined for the first round since his freshman year at college, but like Addison, his stock has fallen a little because of limited agility scores. Dallas is known to take bigger names, and their tight ends have traditionally been bigger and slower guys rather than major receiving threats. Mayer allows Dallas’s front office to fill a position of need, gives QB Dak Prescott another weapon in the passing game, and gives well-known owner Jerry Jones somebody to deem the second coming of Cowboys icon Jason Witten.

Other potential picks: Bijan Robinson, Jahmyr Gibbs, Dalton Kincaid, Brian Breese

27. Buffalo Bills - Jordan Addison, WR, USC

The Bills value collegiate production and floor more than almost any other team, and don’t put as much of an emphasis on athletic traits. Addison is the epitome of a high-production player with athletic question marks, as he won the Biletnikoff award as the best receiver in college football in 2021 with Pittsburgh, and still performed well at USC. His stock tanked during the combine, where he posted mediocre agility scores while measuring in as one of the draft’s smallest receivers. However, as I outlined earlier, the Bills are very willing to overlook those athletic limitations to pick a player who has played too well to be bad but tested too poorly to be a star.

Other potential picks: Mazi Smith, Josh Downs, Brian Breese, Calijah Kancey

28. Cincinnati Bengals - Emmanuel Forbes, CB, Mississippi State

Lots of people have hyped up the 167-pound ballhawk Emmanuel Forbes to go in the first round recently. Cincinnati lost at least half of their secondary this offseason to free agency, and desperately needs players to complement Chidobe Awuzie, Mike Hilton, and Daxton Hill. Forbes’s biggest weakness is his frame, but his biggest strength is his instincts. Forbes had 6 interceptions last year, and that number was by no means an anomaly. Emmanuel Forbes provides an explosive element to his game at cornerback, making him an intriguing option for a team that has been so close to lifting up the Lombardi Trophy in the past two seasons.

Other potential picks: Michael Mayer, Dalton Kincaid, Anton Harrison, DJ Turner

29. New Orleans Saints (via SF/MIA/DEN) - Calijah Kancey, DL, Pittsburgh

The Saints defensive line went from a deep to a thin position group pretty fast because of their cap situation, but Kancey would provide agility rushing from the interior or even head-on against offensive tackles. After losing David Onyemata and Sheldon Rankins in recent years, they need another option on the interior, and Kancey is probably the best one left. Kancey, while very undersized (a common theme in this draft), uses quickness and technique to win frequently on the interior, and he probably will hear his name called on Thursday.

Other potential picks: trade up (will likely happen), Myles Murphy

30. Philadelphia Eagles - Darnell Washington, TE, Georgia

Darnell Washington is what actually would happen if LeBron James tried to play football. Washington is 6’8 and usually the biggest person on the field, and he’s a freak athlete. Washington is somewhat fast for his size and blocks like an offensive lineman, bolstering the run game. This is a luxury pick for Philadelphia, but they could be scary in 2-TE sets with Goedert, more of a receiving TE, and Washington. My favorite part about this pick is that the Eagles submitted an approved rule that would allow players to wear the number zero, Washington’s college number, just a few months ago. If that was for Washington, that would be incredibly funny.

Other potential picks: Matthew Bergeron, O’Cyrus Torrence, DJ Turner, Jahmyr Gibbs

31.Kansas City Chiefs - Anton Harrison, OT, Oklahoma

Harrison would make sense in Kansas City. His technique, especially his upper body, has steadily improved to become really good in 2022, and he’s not far from becoming a starter. Harrison’s main flaw is lateral movement in pass protection, but the Chiefs will know how to protect his weakness while he improves. Kansas City really lacks a tackle, after losing both of their starters last year and only signing one so far. I doubt that whoever picks Harrison ends up regretting that pick, and Kansas City could really use another option to protect Mahomes. Anton Harrison can also play on either side of the line, which makes whatever unit he is drafted to better from day 1.

Other potential picks: Will McDonald IV (or any other EDGE), Zay Flowers (or any other WR), trade up

You may wonder who Lamar Jackson even is, so I will give a quick profile for those reading who may not watch football as closely as I do, so feel free to skip this paragraph. Lamar Jackson (26) is the Quarterback of the Baltimore Ravens, who won the Most Valuable Player award in 2019 and has been absolutely dominant as a passer and runner throughout his first five seasons in the NFL when he’s on the field, which is a notable caveat given his noticeable but not massive injury history and immune system worse than those of many toddlers. He is currently open for any team to sign him to a contract that the Ravens could choose to sign him to themselves or let him go for the compensation of two round 1 picks, and nobody has even talked to the superstar with over a month into his free agency. He wants a fully guaranteed deal, which in the NFL’s case means that barring suspension, the player will receive all of the money in the contract. Non-guaranteed money in contracts can not get paid out if the team decides to release the player, and non-guaranteed contracts are mostly a thing in football.

For nearly a year, Jackson has pushed for a fully guaranteed contract at signing, a rarity in the NFL. When searching for a new contract, he has persisted in arguing for a fully guaranteed deal in large part due to the fact that Deshaun Watson had just gotten one worth over 200 million dollars. If Watson, who had accusations of sexual misconduct from 20+ women and was still a worse player than he is, got a fully guaranteed deal, then why shouldn’t he? If it were that simple, he wouldn’t remain on the open market. But, here we are, with Lamar fighting without any representation just to get his deal, encountering a group of owners who view his contract status as a major turning point for the future of NFL football. How did this happen?

Why is this so controversial?

Let’s backtrack a bit. Arguably the catalyst of this drama is the Deshaun Watson contract. As I mentioned earlier, the Browns gave QB Deshaun Watson a $220M+ fully guaranteed deal. Basically every other owner was pissed at the Haslem family (Browns owners), not because they gave all of that money to a credibly alleged sexual predator, but because he got a contract that other quarterbacks had the right to ask for and a contract that NFL owners so badly didn’t want to hand out, as more guaranteed money makes their finances tighter.

To the fans, this was a player trying to reset the market. To Lamar, he is trying to get financial security for life. To owners, however, this is a contract that will determine whether or not superstars like Joe Burrow, Justin Herbert, Jalen Hurts, and many more to come will get a fully guaranteed deal. Oddly enough, this isn’t even the owners’ first crack at this fight, as Kirk Cousins got a fully guaranteed contract from Minnesota in 2018, but other quarterbacks couldn’t follow. The owners want history to repeat itself, while players want it to be changed forever.

So now, Lamar wants a contract that NFL owners are trying so hard to never introduce to the league, and it’s to the point where you have to ask yourself whether or not the owners are trying to compete. The Ravens signed Lamar to a non-exclusive franchise tag, which essentially makes him a free agent but the Ravens will have the opportunity to match the deal and bring him back to Baltimore. So, they get other teams to do all of the negotiating with Lamar, who has no agent, and get all of the blame in case of a potential fully guaranteed contract. This would’ve worked if anyone bit the bait.

Not only does nobody want to sign a former MVP quarterback, but several teams have gone out and flat out said that they will not pursue him. Atlanta, Detroit, and other potential suitors have gone out and said that they will not pursue him, because their owners don’t want to be the ones to hand out the contract that Lamar wants. The Falcons in specific have some pretty wild excuses that I can’t help but share in this piece, as they cited Lamar’s lack of availability as a cause for concern. For the record, they pursued Deshaun Watson, who had missed an entire season and could have missed many more due to over 20 sexual misconduct allegations, and even before those rose to the surface he already had torn the same ACL twice. Pretty clear to me that teams like the Falcons are fighting a different battle than one to sign a former MVP.

Lamar’s side of the story

But why hasn’t Lamar given up? I think not having an agent is why he’s still on the market, which isn’t necessarily a bad thing for him. The biggest names of NFL media are intertwined with agents and team executives, who all want players to sign agents, so while it’s unsurprising that the big fish in the industry criticize Lamar for not getting an agent, I recommend looking past their criticism and looking at the situation more objectively.

Agents, in general, argue in favor of collaborating with teams and signing sooner rather than later. Lamar has been offered deals by the Ravens, and we know this funnily enough because he has sometimes tweeted out what they offered him because he felt like it. Truthfully, with an agent, he would have signed a deal well below Watson’s guaranteed figure, maybe near his annual pay, because dragging contract negotiations out as long as Lamar has is what players hire agents specifically not to do, sacrificing a percentage of their pay and the persistence sometimes required to reset a market.

While I may have just come across as someone who argues in favor of getting an agent, there are many scenarios where Lamar looks smart by not being represented. Lamar is betting that he will eventually get a deal with a guaranteed figure similar to that of Deshaun Watson, and if he gets a lot above what an agent would have recommended he accept, he should feel good about himself, and maybe more players will follow in his footsteps.

What’s next?

Ok but seriously, I don’t think this ends anytime soon. No owner seems willing to pay Lamar, so what does he do? He could just take a weak offer, sign a 1-year deal, or just not play. What makes this even weirder is that there are lots of signs pointing to him wanting to go back to Baltimore and just as many arguing that he won’t put on a Ravens jersey ever again.

The main hints we have goes back to mid-March. Lamar announced that he requested a trade around March 1st, and that the Ravens hadn’t been responsive. Usually, you don’t see these kinds of tweets from players, but without an agent, he did the work himself. Not much moved until Baltimore signed big-name wide receiver Odell Beckham Jr., a decision that Lamar was heavily involved in. Odell’s instagram story featured a screenshot of him and Lamar on a facetime, so the Ravens making a major financial investment into a receiver for the first time since Lamar was drafted could be indicative of how willing Lamar is to go back to Baltimore.

I feel like if I want to look forward to what could happen next, it would be best to imagine a few scenarios.

Scenario 1: He is pleased with Odell Beckham Jr.’s signing and signs a deal with the Ravens. This deal, as all others, could be big or small.

Scenario 2: He signs elsewhere and the Ravens match, allowing them to keep Lamar without having many owners of the NFL hate them.

Scenario 3: He signs elsewhere and is let go, giving Baltimore 2 first round picks. Washington, Atlanta, Detroit, and Indianapolis make the most sense to me.

Washington: The Commanders have a new owner who may not be scared of annoying the others, and have been stuck in QB purgatory for years.

Atlanta: Lamar’s style fits the Falcons offense perfectly, and Atlanta’s future franchise quarterback probably isn’t on their roster right now. However, it is important to keep in mind that they took about 15 minutes from the start of free agency to publish news on their own website that they are not interested in signing Lamar.

Detroit: The Lions have an ultra-creative offense with an average QB in Jared Goff who could hold them back from being a serious threat. Maybe Lamar pushes them to contention.

Indianapolis: Indy has the most cap space and are a logical fit with Head Coach Shane Steichen’s experience in QB rushing schemes, but as a Colts fan myself I do not expect this one to happen because Owner Jim Irsay seems dead set on drafting a rookie quarterback with the fourth overall pick in the draft as they have tried too many veteran quarterbacks in recent years.

Scenario 4: He waits until training camp to sign with another team. This offer gets matched and Lamar stays in Baltimore.

Scenario 5: He waits until training camp to sign with another team. This offer does not get matched, and he is on a new team. Washington and Atlanta (even given their comments) would be the most logical suitors in my eyes, as it wouldn’t make sense to throw Lamar into Detroit or Indianapolis.

Scenario 6: He sits out the whole season.

Now, if Lamar wants a contract structure similar to that of Jalen Hurts recently, I think that would be hard to get, but it’s been reported recently that Lamar and the Ravens are not too far off. So while this news came after I wrote the bulk of the article, it’s important to acknowledge how it will affect the situation at hand, and I think it could speed it up if both sides have a more achievable contract to base negotiations on.

I hope by reading this you were exposed to different perspectives of this abnormal NFL saga, and that you’ll share my confusion regarding what comes next. The fate of many quarterbacks lies in the hands of these contract negotiations. This is one of the craziest football stories I’ve followed due to how many complex layers it has, and maybe someday this will all be history, but Mexican Standoffs aren’t known for their quick endings.

It might be time for the Indianapolis Colts, my favorite team, to rebuild or at least change something. For the fifth season in the Frank Reich era, the Colts came out flat in week 1 and embarrassed themselves in Jacksonville, and haven’t improved much since. They ended last season with back-to-back losses that had them watching the postseason from home after having a 98% chance to qualify. Since I wrote this first part of this piece, Frank Reich’s job role in Indianapolis was terminated.

All offseason, the leadership insisted that they would be “all chips in” but they did the opposite. Everything that wasn’t good in 2021- quarterback, receivers, left tackle- continues to be an issue here in 2022, and that falls on both the coaching staff and the front office. Both Frank Reich and Chris Ballard are far too passive, and this team looks unprepared and comes out flat every single week.

But I’m not here to only say the negatives. Ballard is a fantastic scout and talent-evaluator and Frank Reich is a very good offensive play-designer, but can they really be a Super Bowl-winning duo? I’m not so sure that they’ll ever admit that their process was wrong, so Frank Reich has been canned and Ballard may be as well. Here’s why.

Chris Ballard is far too passive, and in my opinion, should take more blame for the quick downfall of the Colts than Reich. He’s the guy behind their passive philosophy that hasn’t gotten anybody a Lombardi Trophy in at least 10 years, and if you are going to bypass improving your roster every other offseason, you need to hit on every draft or else your team will eventually fall apart. Unsurprisingly, the roster has drastically regressed, and so far, only Frank Reich has received any blame.

If you aren’t convinced that such a passive GM will still work because of his draft history, his handling of the coaching staff and Quarterback should convince you. The initial coaching staff in 2018 was great, but those guys eventually succeeded in other places, and Ballard’s replacements have been mediocre at best and catastrophic at worst. He is also scared to compete at Quarterback, the league’s most important position. He has never tried to get a long-term answer, mostly because like his other philosophies, he’s too scared to take a risk. Drafting a Quarterback is a risk, but if it succeeds, you can win a Super Bowl. Needless to say, Chris Ballard has been too scared to try to get a long-term answer, and now, Indianapolis is nowhere near contending for a Super Bowl. Ballard is too passive and needs to go.

This article won’t linger too much on what happened, but will project to what the Colts will hopefully do in the future, at least under my hypothetical world where I take charge of this trainwreck of an organization.

So, if Ballard goes, who could lead the new Colts regime? Spoiler alert: NOT Jeff Saturday.

Front Office

So, as most teams do, let’s say that the Colts looked for a GM first. Who would be the top options? Alec Alaby - Eagles Assistant GM

Alaby is a name that I’d be very intrigued by. Coming from the analytics side, Alaby is behind one of the most impressive front-office turnarounds that we’ve seen in a long time, but he also has great knowledge of the game. I had the opportunity to talk to him during Wharton’s Summer Moneyball Program, and I was very impressed with how he viewed the game. Alaby comes from a good place that has produced several quality GMs and he could easily be the next.

Brandon Hunt - Steelers Pro Scouting Director

Hunt comes from the Steelers background, and they have been a force in the NFL for a long time. Their process is very good, but would Hunt be able to adapt if the draft-and-develop strategy flopped? Not so sure…

Adam Peters - 49ers Assistant GM

Peters is a prime candidate for this job. He’s been behind building a stout 49ers defense and has built around Kyle Shanahan very well. He comes from a scouting side, but isn’t a pure scout in the way that others are, and could be a great GM. He’s already gotten interviews before, so he could be getting a job sooner rather than later.

Mike Greenberg - Buccaneers VP of football administration

Greenberg is a really intriguing name, coming from a salary cap perspective. Greenberg has pulled off some salary cap magic with Tampa lately, and having somebody who can manage resources the way that he can and being given the strong Colts scouting department could result in a fantastic front office structure in Indianapolis.

Will McClay - Cowboys VP of Player Personnel

McClay could easily be a GM by now, but he’s been chilling in Dallas. He basically has the responsibilities and pay of a GM in Dallas, and nobody is sure if he’d leave his home state. If Indy can land McClay, they should do it in a heartbeat, but somebody who has acquired talent as well as he has won’t be easy to get.

Mike Borgonzi - Chiefs Assistant GM

Borgonzi has circled GM searches for years now, and for good reason. He has been behind building the sustained success of the Chiefs in the past few years, and is highly respected across the league. An intriguing name to look at.

Jeff Ireland - Saints Assistant GM

Ireland has had lots of responsibilities working with Mickey Loomis in New Orleans for a very long time, but has never earned himself a GM job. He always seems to be in discussions, but never actually lands a gig. With the way that New Orleans is looking this year, I’m not sure that he’ll get a job this year, but he’ll always be in contention for one.

The Pick: Alec Alaby. Coming from a place that has pumped out quality GMs (Philadelphia) and being Howie Roseman’s right-hand man, I would trust Alaby to lead a franchise to the promised land. I think they may go with a more traditional mind like Peters, but I am writing this article so I make the rules.

Head Coach

After hiring Alaby, what would I do when it came to hiring a head coach?

Sean Payton - Former Saints HC

Payton will be able to pick between 10 jobs this offseason, and there’s no way that he’s picking Indianapolis. Move on.

Demeco Ryans - 49ers Defensive Coordinator

Ryans is awesome. He coordinates the incredible 49ers defense, and has everybody on that defense playing for him with passion. He’s been a coach for only about 5 years, and nobody has even questioned whether or not he deserves to be a Head Coach. Getting him to come to Indy may be a challenge, as he declined a second interview from the Vikings, but he may be my favorite candidate.

Ken Dorsey - Bills Offensive Coordinator

Dorsey has led one of the most potent offenses in the league. He is a younger guy who has shown his temper issues before, but this Bills offense looks incredible. He without a doubt has the resume, but can he keep up with imperfect situations? Not so sure.

Leslie Frazier - Bills Defensive Coordinator

Just under a decade after Frazier got his first job in Minnesota, it may be time to give him another shot. He has coordinated a Bills defense that is disciplined and well-coached, and has tremendous respect as a leader across the league.

Shane Steichen - Eagles Offensive Coordinator

Steichen has established himself as a good offensive coordinator in Philadelphia, but being a Head Coach is a whole other gauntlet. He can lead an offense, and if Alec Alaby, who has ties with the Eagles, trusts him to lead a locker room, he would be a formidable candidate for this job.

Ben Johnson - Lions Offensive Coordinator

Johnson’s offense has looked very impressive this year. Ben Johnson boasts one of the most unique rushing attacks in the NFL, and has gotten great production out of an otherwise mediocre Lions offense. He may be a year or two away, but Johnson could be a great candidate.

Other Candidates: Eric Bienemy, Mike Kafka, Raheem Morris

The Pick: Demeco Ryans. If the Colts can land Ryans’s leadership and defense, that would be amazing. He’s a fast-riser who deserves every promotion that he’s got, and I’d trust him to lead my franchise in a heartbeat.

A former player for Ryans, Charles Omenihu, said: "Definitely a breath of fresh air for sure, this year has been a long year for me personally in my third year. My third year didn't go, as far as early on, how I thought it would be coming off of my second year—just a combination of what I was going through over there. Coming here was definitely a breath of fresh air. I love it. The organization has a lot of structure. This is not an ego-driven kind of organization. It's not a power struggle either. So it's definitely good to experience that." It’s clear that he’s a leader who fits the requirements of successful NFL Head Coaches in 2023.

Rest of Coaching Staff

Frank Reich and Chris Ballard have really struggled with hiring the coaching staff around them, so I’ll do it better.

Joe Brady - Offensive Coordinator

Brady was the scapegoat in Carolina, but his resume in his last four seasons speaks for itself. In 2019, he led the best college football offense in recent memory at LSU, while being the WRs coach to top WRs Ja’Marr Chase and Justin Jefferson. In 2020 and 2021, we’ve seen that his work in Carolina was very impressive, as the Panthers were a competent team with him, and couldn’t function without him. His head coach, Matt Rhule, was also abysmal, and Rhule’s firing of Brady backfired tremendously. In 2022, he went to be Josh Allen’s QBs coach, guiding him to a near-MVP season. Brady’s air-raid, unique offense has a high floor and a high ceiling. It’s certainly worth giving him a second chance.

Kris Kocurek - Defensive Coordinator (if Gus Bradley leaves)

Kris Kocurek is the guy behind the 49ers monster pass rush, so giving him a promotion would make sense. Like Ryans, it would be hard to lure him over, but the Colts certainly have the money and would benefit from a game-breaking pass rush.

Other Staff

The rest of the coaching staff needs a rework as well, with all of the defensive staff likely going with Gus Bradley, and the offense undergoing some turnover as well. It’s hard to research who would be good fits for these roles, but I can present what has been an issue.

Jobs are safe

On the Fence

Gotta go

Gus's Guys

Reggie Wayne (WR)

Scottie Montgomery (RB)

Mike Mitchell (SAF)

Bubba Ventrone (ST)

Klayton Adams (TE)

Nate Ollie (DL)

Scott Milanovich (QB)

Chris Strausser (OL)

Gus Bradley (DC)

Richard Smith (LB)

Ron Milus (DB)

I’m not going to act like I know the position coaches to hire, but I can identify decently well whether or not the current guys in the building are doing a good enough job. A new defensive staff, OL coach, and maybe a QB coach is nothing short of a necessity.

The defensive staff turnover may puzzle some people, but I think that Gus would probably go if Indy hires a defensive head coach. Bradley’s defense is good, but not amazing, and struggles against good quarterbacks due to his bland defensive schemes. He is a stable force, but Demeco may want his own guy.

Overhauling the Roster

The Colts are built to compete with their money allocation, but they could sell their players for picks and reboot very quickly. They’ve already traded Nyheim Hines, so what could they do next?

The obvious first moves come at QB. Cutting QB Nick Foles would be good if they plan to bring in anybody else at QB. That saves $2.1M. Next, Indy has to let go of Matt Ryan. Ideally, you’d like to trade him to avoid a $18M dead cap hit, but finding a suitor who would take on over 20 million would be tough. Cutting him to save 17 million is necessary.

Next, Indy should probably sell a lot of their expensive pieces to prepare for a full reset if they want to make a Super Bowl. They should try to sell expensive and underperforming offensive linemen such as Braden Smith, Quenton Nelson, and Ryan Kelly. Nelson’s contract is unmovable, but selling Kelly gives the Colts an extra $8M and selling Smith gives Indy another $10M. Realistically, among this group, only Kelly’s contract is desirable for other teams. The best landing spot for Kelly, in my opinion, is the New York Giants, who would greatly benefit from even a competent center. Netting either of the Giants’ third round picks for Kelly is a beneficial deal.

The Colts also have some desirable assets on defense, and some schematic adjustments may cause some turnover. The assets likely to be sold by this new regime are Kenny Moore II, Stephon Gilmore, and Shaquille Leonard. Realistically, Indy only sells one of these guys, but they could easily get similar capital to what they got for Kelly for a guy like Gilmore.

Free Agency

Chris Ballard is known for being incredibly passive in Free Agency, but Alec Alaby won’t repeat his mistake. Now, there’s no reason to go for big splashes with the state of this team, but shoring up some positions of need even with band-aid options would allow Demeco Ryans’s team to succeed in 2022.

To start, they should bring back some of their own. Bobby Okereke is the star of their expiring deals, and having an elite cover linebacker in Ryans’s defense enables it to be elite, like it is in San Francisco with Fred Warner. I would not be opposed to Indy giving Okereke what he’s worth, especially if they move on from Shaq Leonard. They also have lots of good role-players who I’d like to see back. Ashton Dulin, Parris Campbell, Deon Jackson, Dennis Kelly, Ifeadi Odenigbo, Tyquan Lewis, EJ Speed, Rodney McLeod, and Chase McLaughlin have been good contributors in 2022, and would greatly benefit from a new coaching staff. This would let lots of underwhelming performers such as Matt Pryor and Brandon Facyson hit free agency, leaving major holes at LT, CB, and more.

When it comes to external free agents, the two biggest needs are once again OL and CB, which shows how poorly Ballard has built this roster. Obviously, Indianapolis could acquire a quarterback, but they would realistically only get a bridge quarterback like Jacoby Brissett, Teddy Bridgewater, and maybe even Sam Darnold depending on if Joe Brady likes him. I’ve written before about how hard it is to acquire those positions in free agency, but Alaby should try his best. Luckily, the cornerback market is incredibly robust, with players like Sean Murphy-Bunting, Emmanuel Moseley, and more hitting the market. Nobody should be too expensive and getting a starter for a relatively cheap price should be one of the first things that Alec Alaby does, especially in a year where it’s so easy to do so. I see Demeco Ryans going after Moseley, who would benefit from the continuity that comes with staying with that elite coaching staff.

Getting a quality offensive lineman will prove to be much harder. The tackle market has players like Jack Conklin and Orlando Brown, but they won’t be cheap. My personal preference, and maybe even prediction, is Eagles backup Andre Dillard. Indy can afford to give him a swing-tackle contract and he’d protect the next QB well, even if he can’t add surplus value in the run-game. Luckily, Indy’s run game as it’s designed doesn’t need incredible run-blockers due to running a lot in between the tackles, but that could change depending on who next takes charge of the offense. Obviously, Dillard wouldn’t be the long-term option, but he’s still a viable band-aid who can slot into either tackle spot.

Aside from Moseley and Dillard, I don’t see Indy taking too many external swings in free agency to allow for a smoother reset. There are definitely guys I could see them signing, including a new center, but it would be very hard to predict the signing of anyone going to a small market, rebuilding team with no previous ties to the front office or the coaching staff. The Draft

The final piece to the Colts’ best possible reset is a killer draft. They have several needs going in, but the most important one is Quarterback. Unfortunately, Indy isn’t in the best spot to get a quarterback, as their four wins and a tie put them ahead of several QB-needy teams. With the way that I project the season to end, I have Indianapolis winning one more game, putting them behind Houston, Detroit (pick acquired from LAR), Carolina, and Chicago. And, if the first three teams take a quarterback, I’m not so sure that Indy will.

Mock Draft:

Indy needs a QB, OT, CB, and WR. Let’s go.

Round 1, Pick 4: Indianapolis will likely fall in love with Florida QB Anthony Richardson no matter who’s sitting in the GM seat. Richardson is a very raw QB prospect but has shown flashes of stardom and has all of the traits that guys like Joe Burrow have to thrive in the NFL. If Indy takes a very early swing on a quarterback, I’d want it to be Young, Stroud, or Richardson.

Round 2, Pick 36: The Colts desperately need help along the offensive line, and I anticipate Maryland OT Jaelyn Duncan to be the best guy available for that role. Duncan has a decent floor and a decent ceiling, making him a solid round 2 guy to hopefully be Will Levis’s blindside blocker of the future.

Round 3, Pick 81: I really like Mississippi State’s CB Emmanuel Forbes mostly because he has incredible confidence and decent tools. He could be a frisky but good option in round 3.

Anyways, the Colts need a reset, and I think this could be the step back that they need before they explode as a super bowl contender!

I wanted to do a mostly quantitative investigation of the aggressive teams of the 2022 trade deadline. I scored each team with at least a 40% chance to make the postseason with a score from 1-15 (1= passive, 15= aggressive), because there were 15 teams. I compared their odds of making the postseason and following rounds then to what ended up happening. Here’s what I gathered.

As you can see, being aggressive helps! Pretty obvious, but I wanted to go more in depth. I then went to R, a programming language, to statistically analyze how teams exceeded expectations or failed to live up to them. As you can expect, it’s pretty obvious that being aggressive works in the short term.

For my first graph, I compared the deadline “scores” I gave the team to the percent change that they would make the final four teams. I’ve already explained the x-axis score, and the y-axis is simply the difference between their chances of making the conference finals on July 31, before the deadline, and their chances of making the conference finals on October 6th, when the regular season ended. The correlation value wasn’t great, at a 0.3727681 (1 is good and 0 is horrendous), but it indicated some correlation with being aggressive and regular-season success.

Now, the real fuel behind my argument is how aggressiveness affected playoff results.I measured the percentile result of each team compared to July 31st’s projections, seeing how far they got in the postseason and what the predicted chance of that happening was. For this, I subtracted the average percent chance between them reaching where they got and them reaching a round farther, to have more accurate stats. For example, the Mets had about a 6th percentile result, while the Cardinals had about a 69th percentile result. The correlation for this graph was 0.5587597, showing that aggressiveness at the deadline has a much bigger impact on playoff performance and pays off more in October.

You’ve seen the stats now. You’re probably wondering why you needed some teenager on the internet to tell you that trading prospects for proven players results in winning; but the same teams that are doing this now were doing this four years ago. The teams that bought in 2018 aren’t totally regretting it now, they’re totally fine because the guys that they gave up only had a chance to become stars in the MLB, and whatever happens in the future isn’t nearly as predictable as what happens in that direct season.

There are obviously some flaws, and my judgments shouldn’t be the only basis of any opinion, but would you rather have a 15% chance to win the world series for 4 seasons and a 5% chance for the last two, or a 10% chance to win the World Series for 6 years? It just takes simple math to pick the first choice, and that’s why teams who aren’t aggressive at the deadline are letting their fans down.

Wide Receivers and Edge Rushers are at a glut. It feels like both positions, especially wide receivers, are littered with talent every draft class, and that allows for teams to feel more comfortable letting those positions leave in free agency due to how easy it is to replace them in the draft. Now, the opposite applies for their counterparts: Cornerbacks and Offensive Tackles. These positions are often at a rarity in the NFL, and teams often struggle to replace lost talent in the often weaker and thinner OT and CB draft classes.

So, how did we get here? First of all, if you haven’t watched Benjamin Solak’s video on the wide receiver talent in drafts, I would highly recommend it. His video goes over how there will never be another bad WR draft class, and why this is happening. His main point: There will never be a bad wide receiver class again due to the surge of passing at all levels of football. While Solak’s argument is correct, I dove into a different reason, starting at even the smallest levels of football.

In passing plays, the wide receivers and edge rushers are basically playing offense, initiating the play and trying to make the first move, and that’s why so many people want to play those positions. Edge and receiver are easier positions because you can dictate the play, and they often make the splash plays. Kids want to play these positions in the same way that kids want to play offense over defense in basketball, they want to be like the players that they idolize for their highlight tapes. This is why, in my opinion, top tier wide receivers and edge rushers will continue to pour into the NFL.

So, how should NFL teams approach this?

We know what this causes for wide receivers and edge rushers, but what about corners and tackles? Well, this just puts an even higher emphasis on those positions, specifically filling out the depth charts there. If one of your cornerbacks loses, or one of your tackles loses, the other team is probably going to make a big play. In addition, this allows opposing teams to attack a weaker player, and match up their top guy with a weaker player. If you don’t believe me, watch the 2020 NFC Championship Game between Green Bay and Tampa Bay; that cold January afternoon, The Bucs avoided Jaire Alexander and consistently threw towards Kevin King in an upset victory.

But there’s one more important factor in investing into players, that being the salary cap.

We are witnessing one of the most interesting eras in the NFL with the salary cap booming, and contracts rising in line with it. In specific, the top of the wide receiver and edge rusher markets are growing daily, and that’s creating an important divide in the NFL. Some teams are willing to pay 25+ million annually for individual players, while others are not. The Packers, Chiefs, and Titans all traded top-tier receivers, letting the Raiders, Dolphins, and Eagles pay them each over 25 million. And truthfully, I don’t see this stopping. Star receivers from 2019 such as Deebo Samuel, DK Metcalf, and Terry McLaurin are all on the final years of their deals, and all three have been in trade talks at some point this offseason, although McLaurin is likely off the table for now. And the year after, well, the star-studded 2020 draft class with Justin Jefferson, Ceedee Lamb, Michael Pittman Jr., Tee Higgins, and more will all have finished their fourth and possibly final years of their cheap rookie contracts.

But how should teams react? In my opinion, paying a WR a boatload of money isn’t a bad idea in a nutshell. The value that a top receiver (or edge) can give you is incredible. They can single handedly carry a unit, and force opposing coordinators to game plan against that specific player. With that said, I don’t blame teams, especially those with high QB cap hits, for moving on from their high-paid pass catchers because it would be an excessive amount to invest into that player based on their current cap situations. In general, I prefer more top-heavy WR and EDGE groups because you only need one win to win in a specific play, and they require so much attention. As for filling out the rest of a group, that shouldn’t require too significant of an investment. Obviously, you shouldn’t ignore your second weapon, but I also think it’s a mistake to pay serious starter money to a WR3. We’ll get into examples later.

As for Tackles and Corners, balance is a necessity. If you have one weak spot, you will be exposed, so rooms with no stars but all solid players are much more valuable than rooms with stars but also with liabilities. Signing solid starters is almost always smart (as long as they sign the right guy) and, unlike receivers, is very important to filling out a roster with the positional scarcity at those spots.

But it doesn’t stop with just the starters. Corners and Tackles are notorious for being impossible to find at lower levels due to how hard those positions are to play, so having depth that accounts for injuries is key. If a starter or two goes down, your season shouldn’t collapse, but it often does to teams that don’t invest and pay attention to their backups at those positions. This often won’t happen at WR and EDGE, but some teams still stumble into horrible replacements anyways. Think about every backup that your favorite team has introduced who was just awful, they were probably a corner or tackle who gave up a big play. You can’t have weak links at CB and OT, that can cost you superbowls.

So, what are some good examples of signings that I like, or don’t like? Let’s dive in.

LIKE: Bills Offense

Buffalo has aced their WR room. Stefon Diggs is a top 5 receiver, and they have the bodies necessary to surround him without much investment. Their other two starters, Gabriel Davis and Jamison Crowder, were mid-level investments who will be key contributors, Isaiah McKenzie and Tavon Austin are fun gadgets, and Khalil Shakir is a great all-around guy. They also have other big bodies, with Marquez Stevenson, Jake Kumerow, and Isaiah Hodgins. They invested in one guy, and kept swinging on lower-level investments like John Brown, Cole Beasley, and Emmanuel Sanders to provide compliments without breaking the bank. It’s a top-5 WR group with middling investment.

Buffalo’s offensive line is also the blueprint for this article. They have avoided spending high draft capital on offensive linemen, and although spending round 1 picks on linemen isn’t a bad idea, it’s nice when you can invest those into other positions. The Bills have been flexible with their guard spots, but they put above-average starters around them to make a good offensive line with minimal investment. Well done, Brandon Beane.

DISLIKE: Jaguars Offense

The Jags have gone against just about every argument in my article, and that’s probably why they’re really bad. Their receiving core of Zay Jones, Jamal Agnew, Marvin Jones Jr, Evan Engram (who is basically a WR), and Christian Kirk is arguably a bottom-ten group, and takes more money than most groups in the league. You needed at most two of those 5 guys, but they paid all 5, and they gave a player in this tier (Kirk) WR1 money. The Zay Jones contract was also just entirely unnecessary, they’re investing far too much into a fine WR3 who they can get for half of the price because of the glut at WR.

Their offensive line is also a wreck. While I like their OT depth, that’s mostly a product of Jacksonville consistently being bad and getting high picks who haven’t even exceeded expectations. Their interior is even worse, making over 20M per year, but that’s all invested into one player. Brandon Scherff is undoubtedly a stud, but when the people to his right and his left aren’t too strong, his wins won’t matter.

LIKE: Steelers defense

There’s a reason why the Steelers are competitive every year, and that’s because they’re always so well-constructed. They have had multiple stars along the defensive line, yet it seems like the others are stars when they play because their smaller investments are maximized by coaching and playing next to TJ Watt and Cam Heyward. Their secondary is also great, with their cornerbacks being incredibly underrated yet always underpaid, and I believe that will happen again because they stole Levi Wallace for just under 8 million dollars per year. They have their star and they coach around him so well.

DISLIKE: Giants defense

The Giants aren’t ready to compete, but their defense is still so prone to big plays. While each member of their defensive line is solid, it would take a breakout for any of them to be elite in 2022, and their investment into this “solid” group is astronomically high. It could be better if Kayvon Thibodeaux lives up to his potential, but as of now it’s looking like a net loss for 2022. Their secondary is also quite rough, as they’re paying Adoree Jackson arguably more than what he is worth, and they have nobody else. They had James Bradberry, but they had to cut him, exposing their lack of CB depth on the roster. Dave Gettleman really screwed the Giants.

So, to recap, star WRs and EDGEs are going to continue to become more and more valuable, but they’ll also be easier positions to find in general because they’re incredibly popular. OT and CB are the opposite, which makes finding depth for them a real concern for any front office. Hope you enjoyed!

BEST OF THE BEST

LOS ANGELES DODGERS

The Dodgers are, unsurprisingly, the best team in Major League Baseball. It’s hard to even find a weak point on the Dodgers, and they really only have one underperforming player (Max Muncy). From their lineup to their defense to their rotation and their bullpen, this is the best team in baseball, and arguably one of the best ones in recent memory.

NY YANKEES

The Bronx Bombers are off to a flaming hot start, holding the best record in baseball and firing on all cylinders. Their pitching has been especially strong, but not due to their top investments. Gerrit Cole and Aroldis Chapman have been good, but the other pitchers are what make this Yankees staff elite. Nestor Cortes is off to a flaming hot start as New York’s best starter, and the Yanks have a three-headed monster in the bullpen with Michael King, Clay Holmes, and Jonathan Loaisiga.

Their pitching is the best of the best, the Yankees bats have begun to improve lately. Once again, it isn’t the product of star-power, but rather the product of depth and lower-investment guys playing really well. Many of their everyday players have a WRC+ of at least 100 (which means that they are at least league average hitters) and one of the only guys excluded from that list, Joey Gallo, is getting horrifically unlucky. This all leads to the Yankees having a top-ten WAR (wins above replacement) batting, and the best WAR pitching.

This Yankees team feels more complete than those of years’ past. Their high-end depth, particularly in the rotation, could get them to a place they haven’t been to in a while: The World Series. Now, this obviously begs the question of whether or not they will choke again, but I expect the Yankees to enter the postseason on top.

HOUSTON ASTROS

It’s hard not to be impressed by the Astros once again. They boast a ridiculously strong lineup, with both the veterans and the young blood contributing at a high level. Their lineup not only excels at the plate, but also on the field, performing as one of the top defenses in the league. The pitching has been pretty solid, as they have a deep rotation, led by Cy Young-candidate Justin Verlander, who looks like he’s in his prime even when coming back from more than a year away from baseball at age 39. There’s a reason why this team continues to perform at a high level, and expect them to be a dangerous team in the postseason once again.

SERIOUS THREATS

SAN DIEGO PADRES

Bob Melvin is an incredible manager, and Manny Machado is making a Hall-of-Fame push. These are the two biggest takeaways from San Diego’s surprising season so far. Their pitching staff, which was an eyesore just a year ago, has shown to be one of the league’s best in 2022. Their hitting, even without their top player Fernando Tatis Jr., has performed well, and better than expected. With Melvin managing, and Tatis slated to return relatively soon, the Padres look like a team that nobody should want to face in October.

TORONTO BLUE JAYS

This roster is loaded. They have several star hitters with Springer, Bichette, and Guerrero Jr., and look to be gearing for a world series run. However, the Jays haven’t looked like a world series team. Their rotation has the potential to be the league’s best, but they haven’t shown that so far. Kevin Gausman is an ace, and Alek Manoah is a rising star, but Jose Berrios, Yusei Kikuchi, and Hyun-Jin Ryu are the causes of several high-scoring losses. Toronto is still unbelievably dangerous. They have some true superstars, and the necessary depth in the lineup to succeed. If their pitching staff can put it together, Toronto will be unstoppable.

NEW YORK METS

The Mets are a really fun story. They always start out the season doing well, but their success seems more sustainable. Their offseason was headlined by a spending spree, skyrocketing their payroll up to the top of the league. However, the Mets are clicking on all cylinders at the moment. So far, they have only lost one series, and are also doing what the Yankees do: scoring more runs than their opponent. Like the Yankees, most of the top Mets are excelling at the plate, but they’ve flamed out recently. They’ve been mediocre in May, with most of their top guys regressing. Let’s see if this Mets team can prove that they’re different from those of years past and stay hot throughout the season.

MILWAUKEE BREWERS

The 2022 Brewers are basically the same as the 2021 Brewers. Their pitching is elite, with seven quality starters, and the best bullpen arm in the league in Josh Hader. Unsurprisingly, their pitching has been stellar, and this mirrors last years’ pitching staff. The hitting, just like 2021, has been fine. Standing around the middle of the league in most metrics, Milwaukee’s bats have been no more but no less than average. They have a slightly modified cast of bats, but they’re performing at the same level as last year’s hitters. We know that Milwaukee should make the postseason, and that their pitching will take them far. The real question is: Can their hitting finally take a step forward, or will they fail to succeed against postseason-worthy pitching staffs?

LOS ANGELES ANGELS

Are the Angels actually good? They’ve had two of baseball’s top stars in Trout and Ohtani, but always failed to surround them with the proper talent to succeed. However, this season seems like a change for the better, and has set the Angels up in first place. The additions of Noah Syndergaard, Aaron Loup, and Michael Lorenzen, and significant improvements from home-grown starters Reid Detmers and Patrick Sandoval all put together the best pitching staff that the Angels have ever had. Last season, they had Shohei Ohtani carrying both their pitching and their hitting, and now that he has help, notably with breakout hitter Taylor Ward, the Angels look dangerous.

Since I wrote this, the Angels have lost twelve in a row, and fired their manager in the process. This may be who the Angels are, or they’ll rebound. Let’s see what new manager Phil Nevin can do.

TAMPA BAY RAYS

The Rays are a good team, but this isn’t anywhere near what last years’ team looked like. They have a bona-fide superstar in Wander Franco, but seem to have lost some depth. The rotation has taken a step back, and the departure of Nelson Cruz has definitely hurt, especially when Reid Detmers threw MLB’s second no-hitter all by himself. Tampa is still definitely good, and they have the best player that I can remember to put on a Rays jersey, but unless they can have some role-players step up, they look like they’ll choke in the postseason once again.

PLAYOFF HUNT

MINNESOTA TWINS

The Twins are a fun team. While their pitching has been mediocre, they are still outperforming expectations without many noteworthy names on their pitching staff. Their bats, however, are why the Twins are the AL Central’s only success story so far. They’re headlined by the often-injured Byron Buxton, but he has played the whole season so far and looks like an AL MVP frontrunner. They also have several other bats playing at a high level, enough so to make each and every member of their lineup a tough out. So far, the Twins are making last season’s struggles look like an anomaly, and they look like the AL Central’s top team so far.

ST. LOUIS CARDINALS

The Cardinals are good. Their hitting is superb, with Paul Goldschmidt’s MVP-level start leading the way. They also have fantastic depth, with quality backups just about everywhere. As expected, their defense is great, and they help out their pitchers a lot. The pitching, however, is pretty abysmal. While they aren’t the most talented pitching staff in the league, they’re nowhere near the bottom-5 staff that they’ve looked like these two months. Steven Matz and Jordan Hicks have been horrible, and the rest of their staff has been pretty weak as well. The Cardinals have the lineup to win a World Series, but they may not even make the playoffs if their pitching doesn’t improve.

SAN FRANCISCO GIANTS

This was always a transition year for the Giants. They have elite depth, but their hitting and pitching have taken steps back. Now, this is likely attributed to significant losses in the offseason, but it’s hard to tell if the Giants were a one-year wonder. They look like they’re going to fight for one of the final wild card spots, but until they can regain some of their lost talent, they’ll still be second-fiddle at best to the Dodgers in the NL West.

ATLANTA BRAVES

Atlanta seems to be off to a World Series slump so far. Let’s start on a positive note, where the pitching has been nothing short of impressive. Even without their ace, Mike Soroka, Atlanta’s pitching has been stellar and the reason why they are hanging around in the Wild Card hunt. Their lineup, on the other hand, has been a dud. The infield, as always, has been good. Matt Olson replaced Braves legend Freddie Freeman seamlessly, and the rest of their infield is at least league-average behind the plate. The outfield, however, has taken a significant step back. It’s hard to emphasize how bad the outfield has been, especially since breakout performances from Adam Duvall and Eddie Rosario were key parts to their championship team. Even with Ronald Acuna Jr. and Marcell Ozuna, their outfield has been a complete dud. The Braves are hanging around .500, and look to have a decent chance to make the postseason in a weak NL East.

CHICAGO WHITE SOX

What’s up with the White Sox? The issue boils down to two things: depth and management. I may be a little bold here, but the game seems to be passing Tony La Russa by. His affection for batting average and lack of willingness to shift has put the White Sox exactly around .500, and these issues plague every game that they play. Their lack of depth is also being exposed with injuries, as they’ve failed to get quality depth on their hitting staff, and especially their pitching staff. Chicago has some really good players such as Dylan Cease and Luis Robert, but they need to act fast or else their star seasons will go to waste.

BOSTON RED SOX

What’s happening with the Red Sox? It seems to be that every game they show flashes of last years’ brilliance, and then collapse. To start, their pitching is underperforming even with somewhat low expectations. Their bullpen is quite bad, and the rotation is far worse than last year. The more pressing issue, however, is their lineup. Martinez, Bogaerts, and Devers are still hitting well, but you can’t win with three batters. Their offseason acquisitions aren’t doing so well, which has led to a disappointing offense.

I’m honestly quite scared that this team can’t get them anywhere. Last years’ team was significantly stronger, and unless they can replace the production of Hunter Renfroe, Kyle Schwarber, and Eduardo Rodriguez, it looks like Boston may not make it to October.

PHILADELPHIA PHILLIES

I mean, this Phillies season is going exactly as planned. Their offense is carried by a plethora of big bats, but lacks the depth to survive an injury. They have good starters, but the pitching staff lacks the depth to close out games. The defense, however, is horrendous. They consistently trot out bottom-tier defenders such as Kyle Schwarber and Alec Bohm, and expect results that they have yet to receive. In the end, there is a reason that the Phils have a losing record, and their struggles have been clear since the beginning of the season.

BAD, BUT NOT UNWATCHABLE

TEXAS RANGERS

While the Rangers’ offseason spending spree was fun, they’re still far away from seriously competing for a trophy. Their pitching staff is still struggling, and while they have some productive hitters, they still don’t have the proper depth to compete. They’re a fun team, and their high-powered offense is enough to put fans in seats at their new stadium. There’s a reason why they’re the top team in this tier, and that’s because they’re playing good baseball. They’ve played better as of late, but while the Rangers have some nice pieces, they still need recent draft picks to produce at a major league level until they can compete for a postseason berth.

CLEVELAND GUARDIANS

The Guardians are a fun team. Their bats have been a pleasant surprise, with Owen Miller, Andres Giminez, and Steven Kwan emerging to help their superstar 3B Jose Ramirez. They’re always going to be good at pitching, with several high-end contributors in the rotation and in the pen. They have their superstar, but there’s a reason why they are sitting below.500: lack of high-end talent. Knowing Cleveland, they’ll opt to sell rather than buy, but this team is still several pieces away.

ARIZONA DIAMONDBACKS

The Diamondbacks are a prime example of what good coaching can do for a team. After bottoming out as the NL’s worst team last season, they’re hovering around .500 in 2022, with major leaps forward from both their hitters and their pitchers. Daulton Varsho (UTIL) and Humberto Castellanos (SP) have each proven to be breakouts of 2022 and have been catalysts for Arizona’s surge. Now, they likely won’t make the postseason in 2022, but if they make the right moves, they can get there sooner than we think.

COLORADO ROCKIES

Unsurprisingly, the Rockies are on the outside looking-in when it comes to the postseason. Colorado has some quality players, and is superb in Coors Field. However, they are still the same old Rockies, and perform horribly on the road. They have some quality hitters and pitchers, but still lack the depth to compete. They were doing well at the start, but their descent was inevitable, and they have to fix some serious organizational mishaps before they’re ever contenders.

BALTIMORE ORIOLES

While the Orioles are still pretty bad, I think they deserve some positivity. Even without their top pitcher, they are a significantly more competent team than last season, and they actually look like they may be good in the future. They aren’t good in 2022, they were never going to be, but at least they have something to look forward to when the rest of their top prospects come up and at least their fanbase can have fun this season.

MIAMI MARLINS

I like where the Marlins are going, but the fish are still a year away. While they have good players both hitting and pitching wise, they still need pieces and improvement in both phases if they want to be anything more than mediocre. They have solid hitters, but are still a piece or two away from the lineup needed to compete, especially with free agent signing Avisail Garcia struggling so far. The rotation has taken a step back, but still looks to be in good shape for the future. The bullpen, however, is an issue. Those who were once their reliable arms are now blowing games, and what was once a good bullpen has struggled immensely. Marlins fans should be encouraged by their lineup’s step forward, but the fish still have a ways to go.

PITTSBURGH PIRATES

The Pirates are a bad team, but at least they’re fun. Their hitting is pretty rough, as they lack the consistency and depth to succeed. Their pitching has been a pleasant surprise, as David Bednar is a top-tier closer, and they have a mediocre pitching staff. The Pirates are a fun team to watch, but they’re obviously in the heart of their rebuild and still at least a year away from making a playoff push.

CINCINNATI REDS

It’s been a tale of two seasons for Cincinnati. The Reds began their season winning only three of their first 25 games, and looking like a complete embarrassment to the league. But then, something changed. The Reds have skyrocketed in the month of May, outperforming almost all teams in the past four weeks. They clearly aren’t contenders, but it’s been a ton of fun to see them succeed, despite being statistically abysmal on both sides of the ball.

BAD, AND POSSIBLY UNWATCHABLE

CHICAGO CUBS

Chicago sports as a whole seems to be disappointing in 2022. The Cubs made two major moves in the offseason, signing pitcher Marcus Stroman from the Mets and outfielder Seiya Suzuki from Japan. Even with their new additions, their lack of roster-talent has shown, and the Cubs look to be at least a year away from making a playoff push. Both their lineup and their pitching staff have shown to be untrustworthy, leading to a somewhat disappointing season for the Cubs.

OAKLAND ATHLETICS

It’s hard not to hate the A’s ownership. Their owners refuse to spend, and that’s why they lost all of their star talent even when they were not far away from being a serious threat. Their ability to develop talent is superb, but the roster is so cheap and lacks the talent to compete. The A’s will always outperform their expectations, as they are winning some games, but it sucks to see such good roster-building get trashed by ownership. There’s a reason why nobody shows up to their games, as their lack of spending is awful for baseball.

WASHINGTON NATIONALS

To no surprise, the Nats are bottom-dwellers in the NL East. While they arguably have the NL’s top player in Juan Soto, the rest of this roster is clearly rebuilding. Teams can pitch around Soto because their lineup has nobody else to truly be scared of, and this shows up consistently when looking at Juan Soto’s number of walks. The pitching staff is also struggling. They have some good arms, but their quality pieces fade out quickly when you look down the roster. Washington’s season as bottom-dwellers doesn’t come as a surprise, as they are still many pieces away from competing.

DETROIT TIGERS

It seems like everything that was going right for the Tigers last year is going wrong now. They added Javier Baez, who has struggled, and most of last years’ everyday players have regressed significantly. On the bright side, Austin Meadows is hitting well, and their pitching has been a pleasant surprise, but the team that was geared for a breakout looks like it still has some work to do.

KANSAS CITY ROYALS

This Royals season really doesn’t seem too noteworthy or unpredictable at all. Their bats have been inconsistent at best, both with their veterans (Merrifield, Perez, Benintendi) and their younger guys (Witt Jr. and Mondesi). Their pitching is also nothing out of the ordinary, highlighted by Zack Greinke. Overall, KC is still rebuilding, and it’s hard to be too pleased or disappointed with their season so far.

psst: I also ran a mock draft with Phenom, please watch it:

1 - Jacksonville Jaguars - Travon Walker, EDGE, Georgia.

While I don’t know many people who have Walker as the top player in their class, Jags GM Trent Baalke probably does. Walker’s physical traits are off the charts, and his run defense is top notch, but his pass rush output leaves much to be desired. While I question how polished he is, he was limited by Georgia. Between Walker’s upside in a weaker class and Baalke’s love for players of his type, I’m projecting Walker to be the pick at 1.

2 - Detroit Lions - Aidan Hutchinson, EDGE, Michigan.

This pick should be easy for Detroit. Hutchinson is the best pick for what was a pretty bad defense, and he has the highest floor of any player in this draft. I could stop here, but there’s even more. Hutchinson is a local product, which should get the fans excited, and he also is a culture fit with Dan Campbell’s kneecap-biting mentality. Slam dunk pick for the Lions at 2.

3 - Houston Texans - Sauce Gardner, CB, Cincinnati

Lovie Smith’s secondary currently lacks top-end talent, and picking Sauce would change that. He’s yet to give up a touchdown in his college career, which would greatly help their subpar red-zone defense. Houston also wants to build a culture of dedicated football players, and Sauce plugs right into this. He’s a great scheme fit, even better culture fit, and overall would greatly help new HC Lovie Smith’s defense.

4 - New York Jets - Icky Ekwonu, OT, NC State.

Icky is probably the top rated player on Joe Douglas’s board. He’s a physical specimen who thrives in the run game, and the Jets have a need at tackle. Mekhi Becton’s days as a Jet may be numbered, and Icky Ekwonu is, in my opinion, a far better prospect. The Jets need to help their young QB, and love players of Ekwonu’s style, which makes me believe that Icky isn’t falling past pick 4.

5 - New York Giants - Evan Neal, T, Alabama.

The Giants should sprint this pick in. Neal is my top player in this draft, and would give the Giants much-needed stability on the offensive line. Joe Schoen and Brian Daboll want to establish a good offense around their franchise QB, and this would be a fantastic way to do it. Andrew Thomas on the left and Evan Neal on the right becomes a really good tackle duo very quickly.

6 - Carolina Panthers - Kenny Pickett, QB, Pittsburgh.

Only the Panthers would make this pick. Matt Rhule is on the verge of losing his job, and Pickett is seen as the best day-1 QB in this class. The Panthers also have even more ties to Pickett. Matt Rhule recruited him to Temple, and owner David Tepper has significant ties to Pittsburgh University. This is really the only place I could see Pickett going to.

7 - New York Giants - Derek Stingley Jr, CB, LSU.

The Giants are actively looking to trade James Bradberry, and Wink Martindale’s scheme desperately needs corners. Stingley has some question marks, but he had the best college season of anyone in this class. His 2019 season was impeccable, and if his foot injury checks out, this is fantastic value.

8 - Atlanta Falcons - Kayvon Thibodeaux, EDGE, Oregon.

Thibodeaux is one of the most polarizing players in this draft. He is tremendously talented, but his production has failed to meet lofty expectations and his character is a concern to some. Some have him as the top guy in this class, but he does also have some size and frame concerns without having the polish to make up for it. However, I think that it’s likely that Atlanta ignores these issues. He is a perfect scheme fit for a team that doesn’t need size, and Terry Fontenot doesn’t have a history of caring highly for character. Great pick for an edge room that definitely needs it.

9 - Seattle Seahawks - Trevor Penning, OT, Northern Iowa.

Remember, this is a PREDICTIVE mock, which means that I’ll do what happens every year and have the Seahawks reach on a senior bowl standout. While Penning had a great senior bowl week, he still has immense red flags in pass protection at the FCS level (which is why I’m lower on him as a prospect). Seattle likely will ignore these issues, taking the hype too far and taking one of the most physical players in the draft at 9.

10 - New York Jets - Jermaine Johnson II, EDGE, Florida State.

Grabbing Icky at 4 and Johnson at 10 would lead to fireworks in the Jets draft room. Johnson fits the run defense that the Jets covet and also flashed fantastic power as a pass rusher. The Jets currently have Carl Lawson and John Franklin-Myers at EDGE, but Johnson allows for them to put in an effective rotation and improve their horrendous defense. If Robert Saleh really wants to re-create the 49ers, he’ll probably make a pick like this.

11 - Washington Commanders - Jameson Williams, WR, Alabama.

For whatever reason, the Commanders traded for the very volatile Carson Wentz, so QB is out of the picture at 11. But if they want Wentz to succeed, they probably need another weapon to make that happen. Jameson Williams is my top receiver in this class, and I’m not too concerned with him missing the first two months of his hopefully long NFL career. Always nice when you can get a guy who keeps opposing Defensive Coordinators awake at night outside of the top ten.

12 - Minnesota Vikings - Trent McDuffie, CB, Washington.

Minnesota badly needs a corner, and McDuffie can step in and contribute quickly. He’s one of the smartest players in this class, which gives him a very high floor. McDuffie makes perfect sense for the Vikings and can make their defense competent, gearing up for a potential playoff run (at least they think so).

13 - Houston Texans - Charles Cross, OT, Mississippi State.

The Tytus Howard experiment may come to an end if Cross falls to 13. This would be tremendous value, and give the Texans a great draft class. We typically see rebuilding teams like the Texans address the trenches, so grabbing Cross would be a slam-dunk pick to keep Davis Mills clean in the pocket.

14 - Baltimore Ravens - Jordan Davis, DT, Georgia.

Picking the biggest guy in the draft who also happens to be an athletic anomaly would totally fit what the Ravens like to do. Currently, their interior defensive line group is very old, with a change likely taking place. Davis would be in a limited role in round 1, and likely learn from the great Baltimore pass rush coaching to become an all-pro in a few years.

15 - Philadelphia Eagles - Kyle Hamilton, S, Notre Dame.

People may think that this is far too low for Hamilton, but in a league where split-safety is the new norm, a bigger guy like Kyle Hamilton isn’t as desired. However, the Eagles and Jonathan Gannon have experience thriving with players like Hamilton. Gannon’s two previous locations, the Vikings and the Colts, both featured box safeties that show us that the Eagles could like a guy like Hamilton. Some teams may not be comfortable with Hamilton, but I doubt that the Eagles are scared when Hamilton has some of the better tape in this draft.

16 - New Orleans Saints - Chris Olave, WR, Ohio State.

The Saints BADLY need this pick. We have no idea if Michael Thomas will put on a Saints uniform, and even with Thomas, they need more weapons. Olave is one of the most pro-ready receivers in the draft who already knows all of the intricacies of the position. His route-running is top-notch, and he has great speed. Perfect fit for Olave.

17 - Los Angeles Chargers - Garrett Wilson, WR, Ohio State.

Keenan Allen is on the wrong side of 30, so picking Wilson would be a great way to think ahead. Garrett Wilson provides more depth at WR for the Chargers right away, and the best way to capitalize on having a top-5 QB on a rookie contract is to help him on offense. He’ll contribute now, and likely be a stud later.

18 - Philadelphia Eagles - Drake London, WR, USC.

Philly needs an X-receiver, and London can provide that. He’s a great blocker with extraordinary physicality, which is exactly what the Eagles need to compliment Devonta Smith. It’s a little odd that a team picks a wide receiver in the first round for three years in a row, but the Eagles need another weapon if they want to be competitive in 2022.

19 - New Orleans Saints - Desmond Ridder, QB, Cincinnati.

Desmond Ridder is a very good prospect. He has experience executing pro-style systems, has a good processor, and has great physical traits. His intangibles are also amazing. He has a fantastic work ethic and is a legendary trash talker. Ridder is a really good player, and the NFL is probably higher on him than you are. He can be a franchise QB under the right circumstances.

20 - Pittsburgh Steelers - Malik Willis, QB, Liberty.

Willis can also be a franchise QB, but he is definitely boom-or-bust. Willis has all of the physical gifts to be a top-5 quarterback in the NFL, which is something that Pittsburgh needs in a division with Lamar, Burrow, and Watson. However, he is nowhere near ready to play right away, which makes him a major gamble. While Willis is somewhat raw, he has a great character and would be in a great position to succeed in Pittsburgh.

21 - New England Patriots - Leo Chenal, LB, Wisconsin.

Chenal is the Patriots’ type. Dont'a Hightower’s best football is behind him, and the Patriots need a field general to succeed as a unit. Leo Chenal has all of the physical tools to be like Hightower, and is better in space and coverage. While asking someone to replace Hightower is a tall order, the Pats will probably pick Chenal if they want to go linebacker.

22 - Green Bay Packers - Treylon Burks, WR, Arkansas.

Burks is a fantastic fit for Green Bay’s offense. He’s a stud with the ball in his hands, loves to block, and can create explosive plays, which is what Green Bay truly wants in its offense. The Packers will never be able to replace Davante Adams, so their offensive identity will probably revert closer to Matt Lafleur’s roots with McVay. Burks has the archetype to be a Packers WR and the skills to thrive in their wide-zone offense, making him a very possible pick if he falls here at 22.

23 - Arizona Cardinals - Zion Johnson, IOL, Boston College.

Kyler isn’t exactly quiet that he isn’t too satisfied with the Cardinals organization at the moment, so Arizona should (and will) probably surround him with the talent to succeed. Zion Johnson is a fantastic prospect who should go higher than this because he is scheme-proof and incredibly good at every aspect of his game. Expect Zion to make several pro-bowls in his career, and it makes sense for Arizona to grab a guy with that floor.

24 - Dallas Cowboys - Kenyon Green, IOL, Texas A&M.

Dallas badly needs a guard, and Green is the perfect guy. He’s perfect for their traditional pro-style scheme, and also went to college in-state. His value also probably slots him in right here, so a nice pick for Dallas.

25 - Buffalo Bills - Breece Hall, RB, Iowa State.

Breece Hall is probably who the Bills would take at 25. GM Brandon Beane isn’t opposed to taking a RB here, and Breece is likely their top graded guy at the position. He fits their scheme and tendencies at picking RBs, and Buffalo really needs a guy like Breece to thrive on the ground.

26 - Tennessee Titans - Tyler Smith, IOL, Tulsa.

Tyler Smith fits the TItans’ mentality. They badly need a guard, and Smith can slot in there day 1. He’s a nasty run-blocker, which their coaching staff would love, and he can potentially flex out to tackle if he learns how to use his feet in pass protection. Perfect stylistic fit.

27 - Tampa Bay Buccaneers - Daxton Hill, S, Michigan.

New HC Todd Bowles loves grabbing versatile defensive backs, so this would make a ton of sense. Hill played mostly at slot corner at Michigan, but projects as a good safety in the league. Hill is a perfect fit for the Bucs’ secondary, and his versatility can keep him on the field a lot in year 1.

28 - Green Bay Packers - Lewis Cine, S, Georgia.

Green Bay loves looking ahead when making draft picks, and while safety isn’t a need right now, it will be when Adrian Amos likely departs next offseason. Darnell Savage is here to stay, but the Packers need another guy to play in that split-safety defense, and Cine is athletic and smart enough to fill that role in 2023. Would definitely feel like a Packers pick.

29 - Kansas City Chiefs - George Pickens, WR, Georgia.

Pickens is really good. The Chiefs are shifting more towards bigger receivers, and Pickens should be gone long before here. He has a bit of a character concern to some, but I actually really like his character, shown by how he wanted to play with his team rather than improve his draft stock and heal. Even then, the Chiefs have not shied away from character concerns, and George Pickens is a beast who would thrive in Andy Reid’s offense.

30 - Kansas City Chiefs - Kaiir Elam, CB, Florida.

While Pickens is what they look for on offense, Elam is what they look for on defense. His physicality in man coverage is exactly what their scheme prioritizes, and KC has a gaping hole there due to the departure of Charvarius Ward. Elam could fill in for Ward really well and be a really nice pick.

31 - Cincinnati Bengals - Devonte Wyatt, IDL, Georgia.

Devonte Wyatt has some concerns, but he’s exactly what Cincy needs. They lost their pass-rushing presence on the interior with Larry Ogunjobi, and Wyatt can replace that. He’s arguably the top player on the board for a position that they needHe is the top three-technique pass rusher in this class, and that fits exactly what the Bengals need. While he was a late breakout, he would be a great pick for the Bengals at 31, who definitely need some fresh blood on defense.

32 - Detroit Lions - Quay Walker, LB, Georgia.

Quay Walker is going to go in the first round, and the Lions probably love the guy. He is a great mover, great tackler, and really big, so he has the build to be an elite linebacker. He is somewhat unproven, but Detroit is the type of team to fall in love with prospects like Quay Walker. A front with Walker, Hutchinson, and the other guys there would be scary for opposing defenses.